Parameterising a model for the emergence and spread of zoonoses (with reference to Ebola, Lassa Fever and Monkey Pox) in West Africa

2014年西非最近爆发的埃博拉疫情的规模使西非的卫生系统不堪重负，在更广泛的区域定期继续发生小规模疫情，最近一次是2018年在刚果民主共和国。拉沙热病毒的持续存在和出现给卫生系统造成了相当大的负担，特别是那些支持该区域扩大农业和定居社区的卫生系统。最近一次引起全球关注的LVF疫情发生在2018/19年的尼日利亚。据估计，每年约有数十万人感染，数万人死亡。需要研究的重要研究问题仍然存在，特别是那些与当前农村发展途径的作用以及家畜宿主（野生和驯养动物）产生疾病的相关风险有关的问题。猴痘病毒似乎同时出现在尼日利亚和塞拉利昂，并且可能具有与拟议研究地区的甚高频病毒相似的驱动因素。该项目旨在通过建模和实地调查相结合的方式来解决这些问题，确定外溢感染的影响，以及圈养物种的潜在流行病学作用，以及这些感染外溢的关键基础设施或发展驱动因素。研究结果将对今后规划预防甚高频暴发具有重要意义，而所制定的方法应广泛适用于许多环境中的各种疾病。

The scale of the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 overwhelmed West African health systems and smaller outbreaks continue regularly in the wider region with the most recent in Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018. Lassa Fever Virus persistence and emergence is creating a considerable burden on the health systems especially those supporting expanding agricultural and settlement communities in the region. The most recent outbreak of LVF drawing global attention in Nigeria in 2018/19. Some hundreds of thousands of infections are estimated annually and tens of thousands of mortalities. Important research questions to study remain, particularly those related to the role of the current rural development pathways and associated risk of disease emergence from peridomestic animal reservoirs (wild and domesticated animals). Monkey Pox virus appears to be emerging in both Nigeria and Sierra Leone at the same time and may have drivers similar to the VHFs in the proposed study areas. This project aims to address these questions using a combination of modelling and fieldwork, identifying spill-over into and, potential epidemiological roles of peri-domestic species and key infrastructure or development drivers of these infections spill-over. The results will be important for future planning towards preventing VHF outbreaks, while the methods developed should be broadly applicable to a variety of diseases in a number of settings.