Investigating Subjective Expectations in the NLSY

描述（由申请人提供）：在过去的十年中，经济学家已经开始考虑使用主观数据来理解个人决策。新兴研究的一个关键观点是，期望和其他主观现象代表了产生客观人口结果的同一决策过程的不同维度。由于各组成部分之间的联系几乎总是概念性的，行为的正式模型必须指导主观数据的分析。新的主观数据的可用性，以及它们与行为模型的直接联系，为制定、估计和评价人口行为的正式模型提供了令人兴奋的新机会。我的长期研究议程是制定和估计生育行为的结构性计量经济学模型，该模型将欲望、期望和生育结果的概念联系起来。在进行这样一项费时费力的研究议程之前，需要更好地了解主观数据的性质。本申请提出了一项“试点研究”，以调查这一长期研究议程的可行性。我建议在国家纵向调查计划的两个青年队列中调查主观期望问题回答的信息内容和性质，1979队列（NLSY79, 1957-1964年出生的个体）和1997队列（NLSY97, 1980-1984年出生的个体）。通过对NLSY数据的五项实证分析，本研究将为有兴趣分析NLSY97的研究人员提供有用的数据产品；将描述对出现在NLSY79和NLSY97各轮调查中的主观期望问题的回答的性质和质量；将为构建和处理主观期望问题的“最佳实践”调查方法论文献做出贡献；这将有助于我们理解整个生命周期中主观生育预期的形成，这也将有助于我们理解生育决策，尤其是年轻人的生育决策。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In the last decade, economists have begun to consider the use of subjective data for understanding individual decision-making. A critical perspective of the emerging research is that expectations and other subjective phenomenon represent different dimensions of the same decision process generating objective demographic outcomes. Since the linkages among the components are almost always conceptual, formal models of behavior must guide analyses of subjective data. The availability of new subjective data, with their direct connection to behavioral models, affords exciting new opportunities to formulate, estimate and evaluate formal models of demographic behavior. My long-run research agenda is to formulate and estimate a structural econometric model of fertility behavior that links notions of wantedness, expectations and birth outcomes. Before such a time-intensive and arduous research agenda is undertaken, a better understanding of the properties of the subjective data is needed. This application presents a "pilot-study "to investigate the feasibility of this long run research agenda. I propose to investigate the informational content and nature of responses to subjective expectation questions in two cohorts of youth within the National Longitudinal Survey Program, the 1979 Cohort (NLSY79, individuals born in 1957-1964), and the 1997 Cohort (NLSY97, individuals born in 1980-1984). Through the execution of five empirical analyses of NLSY data, the proposed research will contribute a data product useful to researchers interested analyzing the NLSY97; will characterize the nature and quality of responses to subjective expectation questions appearing in various rounds of the NLSY79 and NLSY97 surveys; will contribute to the survey methodology literature on "best practices" for constructing and fielding subjective expectation questions; and will contribute to our understanding of the formation of subjective fertility expectations over the lifecycle, which will also contribute to our understanding of fertility decision making, especially by youth.