How Perceptions of Parties Evolve Following Leadership Change: Evidence from Panel data and Computer-assisted Content Analysis of News Coverage

这个项目的目的是研究选民对政党领导人的看法，通过使用先进的工具来评估选民意见和媒体内容，估计领导层变化及其媒体报道对公众态度的影响。英国最近发生的事件为研究领导层变动对选民看法的影响创造了独特的机会；自2015年以来，英国七个主要国家和地区政党都更换了领导人。英国选举研究（BES）互联网小组的15波（还在计数中）追踪了同样的选民在领导人换届前后对政党的态度，产生了独特的数据来估计受访者内部的态度变化。评估个人的态度之前和之后的变化，面板数据结构授权的项目，以确定领导的变化对同一个人的看法的影响。计算机辅助内容分析的发展进一步使该项目能够确定决定领导层变动的途径和环境。来自主要日报的数据将与BES合并，以评估媒体报道的调节作用。通过将使用面板数据的新颖研究设计与先进的工具相结合，揭示选民对政党的潜在支持以及媒体数据的内容分析，该项目旨在最终确定领导层变化对选民意见的影响。

The aim of this project is to study voter perceptions of party leaders by estimating the impact of leadership change and its media coverage on public attitudes using advanced tools for evaluating voter opinions and media content. Recent events in the United Kingdom create unique opportunities to examine leadership change's effects on voter perceptions; all seven major national and regional British parties changed leaders since 2015. Fifteen waves (and counting) of the British Election Study (BES) Internet Panel tracked the same voters' attitudes towards parties before and after leader transitions producing unique data to estimate within-respondent attitude change. Evaluating individuals' attitudes before and after change, the panel data structure empowers the project to determine leadership change's effect on the same individual's perceptions. Developments in computer-assisted content analysis further enables the project to identify the pathways and environment determining leadership change. Data from major daily newspapers will be merged with the BES to assess the moderating impact of media coverage. By combining the novel research design using panel data with advanced tools for revealing underlying voter support for parties and content analysis of media data, the project aims to conclusively identify leadership change's effects on voter opinions.