The Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather in the Gulf of Guinea

几内亚湾和邻近沿海地区经历了地球上最严重的雷暴，对当地渔民、该地区的航运以及石油和天然气工业构成威胁。在几内亚湾，天气状况可以在一小时内从看似平静的状况迅速转变为强风、暴雨和巨浪。该项目旨在研究几内亚湾有组织的雷暴复合体的动力学和可预测性，这些雷暴复合体被称为中尺度对流系统（MCS）或飑线。该项目将包括努力推进现有的方法，以客观地识别并跟踪MCS和飑线。这些方法将适用于几内亚湾的飑线，以便将来可以在不同的水平分辨率下跟踪气象局预报产品中的特征。一旦客观地确定了沿海和海洋地区的飑线，我们将调查它们为什么和如何形成，它们的演变以及它们与西非陆地形成的飑线有什么共同之处。调查将基于地球静止卫星和极轨道卫星的卫星数据、欧洲中期天气预报中心的分析和再分析数据集以及气象局统一模型的全球和允许对流的天气预报。从而使预警系统的预测更加准确，投入使用的准备时间更长。关于这些高影响天气（HIW）事件的科学文献是有限的，尽管对人类生活和生计的重大影响。该项目是一个真实的机会，有助于对迄今为止很少受到关注的地区的风暴起源、生命周期和物理影响进行基本了解。该博士项目的科学目标是：（1）客观地识别和追踪几内亚湾和西非的飑线（2）该地区的飑线是如何以及为何产生的？地理和天气/大尺度天气对形成的影响是什么？(3)这些飑线的潜在动力是什么？它们与西非的飑线相比有什么不同吗？(4)数值天气预报模式如何捕捉飑线，能否改进以提供更长的预警时间？(5)开发诊断评估工具，以评估几内亚湾飑线在MetUM的演变。该项目将是全球挑战研究基金非洲科学促进天气信息和预报技术方案的一部分，该方案旨在发展非洲天气预报能力，以提高非洲人民的生计，改善非洲经济。通过成为这个国际项目的一部分，您将有机会与英国和非洲的业务预报员合作，并与英国和国际伙伴国家（塞内加尔，加纳，尼日利亚和肯尼亚）的热带科学家联系。与African-SWIFT的连接将有助于获得观测数据，并与直接受几内亚湾飑线影响的当地利益攸关方联系，它将确保您成为英国和非洲充满活力的科学界的一员。成为GCRF African-SWIFT的一员，您将有机会参加为非洲科学家和预报员举办的国际培训和知识交流活动（例如项目会议、SWIFT暑期学校）。与英国气象局（CASE合作伙伴）的密切合作将确保这项研究的结果将用于业务模型的评估和开发。还设想与澳大利亚墨尔本的莫纳什大学的研究人员合作，可能涉及长期访问。

The Gulf of Guinea and adjacent coastal regions experience some of the most severe thunderstorms on the Earth, which pose a threat to local fisherman, shipping in the region, and the oil and gas industry. Over the Gulf of Guinea, the weather conditions can change quickly within an hour from seemingly calm conditions to strong winds, heavy rain and high waves.This project aims to investigate the dynamics and predictability of organised thunderstorm complexes, which are called mesoscale-convective systems (MCSs) or squall lines, in the Gulf of Guinea. The project would include efforts to advance already existing methods to objectively identify and then track MCSs and squall lines. These methods will be adapted for squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea so they can be used to track features in Met Office forecast products at different horizontal resolutions in the future. Once the squall lines have been objectively identified over coastal and oceanic regions we will investigate why and how they form, their evolution and what they have in common with land forming squall lines over West Africa. The investigation will be based on satellite data from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, analysis and reanalysis datasets from the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as global and convection-permitting weather forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM).The overarching aim of the project will be to improve numerical weather prediction of squall events in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in more accurate prediction and longer lead times for operational early warning systems. Scientific literature on these High Impact Weather (HIW) events is limited, despite the significant impact on human lives and livelihoods. This project is a real opportunity to contribute to fundamental understanding of storm genesis, lifecycle and physical impacts in a region that has had little attention to date.The scientific objectives of the PhD project are:(1) Objectively identify and track squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea and West Africa(2) How and why do the squall lines from in this region? What are the geographic and synoptic/ large scale weather impacts on formation?(3) What are the underlying dynamics of these squall lines? Are they different compared to squall lines over West Africa?(4) How do numerical weather prediction models capture squall lines and can this be improved to provide longer-lead early warning times?(5) Develop diagnostic evaluation tools to assess the evolution of squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea in the MetUM. This project will be part of the Global Challenges Research Fund African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT) programme which aims to develop African weather forecasting capability to enhance the livelihood of African populations and improve African economies. By being part of this international project you will have the opportunity to work with both UK and African operational forecasters and connect with tropical scientists across the UK and the international partner countries (Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya). The link to African-SWIFT will facilitate access to observations and to local stakeholders who are directly affected by squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea, and it will ensure that you are part of a vibrant scientific community in the UK and in Africa.By being part of GCRF African-SWIFT you will have the opportunity to attend international training and knowledge-exchange events for scientists and forecasters in Africa (e.g. project meetings, SWIFT summer school). Close collaboration with the Met Office (the CASE partner) will ensure the results of this study will feed into operational model evaluation and development. Collaboration with researchers at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, is also envisioned, potentially involving an extended visit.