Integrating climate and species modelling to predict movements of migratory and nomadic birds in sub-Saharan Africa

游牧和候鸟物种在包括撒哈拉以南非洲在内的世界半干旱地区很常见和广泛存在。然而，尽管做出了协调一致的研究努力，但在充分了解和预测这些物种在年内和年间如何迁徙，以及它们可能如何应对不断变化的气候方面，进展甚微。能够做到这一点对红嘴Quelea特别重要，Quelea Quelea是一种极其丰富的迁徙粮食作物害虫。迁徙作物害虫的大规模、高度可变的暴发，如Quelea，是全球粮食安全的主要威胁。撒哈拉以南非洲的情况尤其如此，那里有超过1.2亿人的生计受到这种害虫的影响。鉴于人类使用的荒地越来越多，以及气候变化的影响，情况可能会变得更糟。迁徙物种本身很难管理和预测，尤其是因为它们的迁徙和种群规模往往是由距离其繁殖地一段距离的事件决定的。尽管研究工作仍在继续，但在预测(因此能够减轻)这种损害可能发生的地点和时间方面进展甚微。博士学位的总体目标将是促进我们对迁徙和半游牧物种如何应对年际间的气候变化以及年内天气模式的理解。您将通过开发在比当前可用的更精细的尺度上运行的时间和空间模型来实现这一点，这将是一个重要的、广泛适用的方法学进步。你将与一个具有广泛技能和兴趣的监督员团队一起工作，包括(I)模拟气候过程和天气如何影响农作物的位置和产量；(Ii)气候变化下的鸟类分布；(Ii)撒哈拉以南非洲(所有类型)的作物病虫害；(Iii)病虫害对农民决策和生计的社会经济影响。博士将重点研究气候变化可能如何改变作物产量和一种极具破坏性的害虫物种的分布。然而，根据您的兴趣和能力，可以探索红嘴藜-谷物-作物相互作用的不同方面，例如迁移连通性假说对具有重要经济意义的超级丰富的农业有害生物物种的适用性。鉴于该物种的社会和经济重要性，还将有机会侧重于作物损害以及相关的财政和生计影响，包括模拟在哪里以及如何进行病虫害防治，以便以最低成本将产量损失降至最低。

Nomadic and migratory bird species are common and widespread in semi-arid regions of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. However, despite concerted research efforts, little progress has been made in fully understanding and predicting how such species move within and between years, and how they are likely to respond to the changing climate. Being able to do so is particularly important for the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea, a hyper-abundant migratory grain crop pest. Massive, highly variable, outbreaks of migratory crop pests, such as the quelea, are a major threat to food security globally. This is particularly true for the in sub-Saharan Africa, where over 120 million people have their livelihoods affected by such pests.Given the increased appropriation of wild lands for human use, and impacts of climate change, this is likely to get worse. Migratory species themselves are challenging to manage and predict, not least because their movements and population sizes are often determined by events at some distance from their breeding grounds. Despite ongoing research effort, little progress has been made in predicting (and therefore being able to mitigate for) where and when such damage could occur. The overall aim of the PhD will be to advance our understanding of how migratory and semi-nomadic species respond to climate change between years, and weather patterns within years. You will do this through developing temporal and spatial models that operate at finer scales than are currently available, which will represent a significant broadly applicable methodological advance. You will be working with a team of supervisors who have a broad range of skills and interests, including (i) modelling how climate processes and weather affect the location and production of crops; (ii) the distribution of birds under climate change, crop pests (of all types) in sub-Saharan Africa and (iii) the socio-economic impacts of pests on farmer decision making and livelihoods. The PhD will focus on how climate change might alter crop production and the distribution of a highly damaging pest species. However, there is scope, according to your interests and abilities, to explore different facets of the red-billed quelea-grain-crop interaction, such as the applicability of the migratory connectivity hypothesis for a hyper-abundant agricultural pest species of economic importance. Given the social and economic importance of the species, there would also be scope to focus on crop damage, and associated financial and livelihood impacts, including modelling where and how pest control could be undertaken so that yield losses are minimised for least cost.