Collaborative Research: BEE: Integrating Evolutionary Genetics and Population Ecology to Detect Contemporary Adaptation to Climate Change Across a Species Range

植物和动物种群通常在它们进化的特定环境中表现最好。然而，气候变化现在正在破坏生物体与其环境之间的进化适应，导致种群数量下降。随着关键物种的消失，人们喜爱的和本地物种所需的自然区域正在发生急剧而迅速的变化。但是，如果在不断变化的气候中生存和繁殖的能力存在遗传变异，那么进化可能会提高人口增长，足以使人口得以持续存在。这项研究将为政策制定者和保护管理者提供指导，以评估这种进化救援的潜在功效。 PI 将测量猩红猴花的种群增长率和进化响应速度，以应对 2011 年至 2016 年美国西部发生的多年严重干旱。该项目还将为高中生、本科生、研究生和博士后研究人员（包括来自代表性不足群体的学生）提供生态、进化和统计概念和方法的培训。尽管自然选择的适应和人口趋势（人口统计学）通常分别由进化生物学家和生态学家分别研究，但它们从根本上与适应性有关。在人口减少的情况下，个体的适应度普遍较低，并且个体不会自我更新。然而，关键性状的遗传变异可以实现适应性进化，提高适应性，并导致种群增长率提高。一个重要的问题是，适应气候变化的速度是否会快于人口下降的速度。这项研究将利用跨越俄勒冈州和加利福尼亚州猩红猴花（Mimulus cardinalis）原生范围的相互移植和复活研究来评估 2011-2016 年特大干旱期间的自然选择。 PI 将确定干旱期间的自然选择是否导致人口增长率增加，以及这种变化是否在以干旱相关性状和适应性最可遗传的变异开始的种群中最为明显。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Plant and animal populations typically perform best in the particular environments in which they evolved. However, climate change is now disrupting the evolved fit between organisms and their environments, leading to population declines. Natural areas loved by people and required by native species are being drastically and rapidly changed as key species are lost. But, if there is genetic variation in the ability to survive and reproduce in a changing climate, then evolution may lift population growth enough to enable population persistence. This study will provide policy makers and conservation managers guidelines to evaluate the potential efficacy of such evolutionary rescue. The PIs will measure population growth rates and the speed of evolutionary response of Scarlet Monkeyflower to the major, multi-year drought that took place between 2011-2016 in the western United States. This project will also provide training in ecological, evolutionary, and statistical concepts and approaches for high school students, undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral researchers, including those from underrepresented groups.Although adaptation by natural selection and population trends (demography) are typically studied separately by evolutionary biologists and ecologists, respectively, they are fundamentally connected by fitness. In declining populations, individual fitness is generally low and individuals do not replace themselves. However, heritable variation for critical traits can allow adaptive evolution, boost fitness, and lead to increased population growth rate. An important question is whether adaptation to changing climate will be faster than the rate of demographic decline. This study will use reciprocal transplant and resurrection studies spanning the native range of the Scarlet Monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis) in Oregon and California to evaluate natural selection during the 2011-2016 mega-drought. The PIs will determine if natural selection during the drought led to increased population growth rate, and whether this change was greatest in populations that started with the most heritable variation for drought-related traits and fitness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.