Multipolarity and non-state actors in conflict resolution: Russia and the Syrian opposition

叙利亚内战已经肆虐了不到十年。战争爆发的同时，美国或西方在中东的霸权似乎正在衰落，这为替代大国的崛起打开了机会。叙利亚内战提供了一个最详细、最复杂的案例，说明俄罗斯正在崛起，干预这场国际化程度最高、也是第一次由社会调停的内战之一。该项目旨在了解俄罗斯在叙利亚内战冲突转变中的角色及其行动对冲突动态的影响。自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯决策者在不同的角度利用外交政策寻求与西方的和解，使关系多样化，并投射力量。普京的第二个总统任期带来了民族主义和强硬的外交政策，以重建俄罗斯的全球大国地位，促进全球多极化。鉴于俄罗斯在金砖四国中的经济地位相对较弱，金砖四国依赖于一系列不同的政策举措，例如自由主义普遍主义和西方霸权的口头争辩，以及国内冲突的工具化。俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的军事和非军事干预--联合国和平进程因俄罗斯的阿斯塔纳和索契倡议以及军事干预而被搁置一边--确保了俄罗斯在国际安全事务中不可或缺的地位，排除了俄罗斯在吞并克里米亚后被国际社会孤立的可能性。此外，俄罗斯批评美国以前在中东和其他地区领导的“自由派”建设和平倡议，这些地区的统治政权被推翻，导致国家崩溃、不稳定，有时冲突重新出现，俄罗斯试图重塑建设和平和干预的规范，以主权和不干涉内政为核心。因此，该项目寻求评估俄罗斯的建设和平倡议是否挑战自由的建设和平规范。此外，该项目寻求将叙利亚和平进程置于确定建设和平、冲突管理和和平类型的日益增长的工作中。虽然研究的重点是俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的干预，但假设行为者之间的周期性互惠促进和约束机构，不仅需要分析国内和外部行为者对冲突转变的影响，还需要分析他们的互动对这种转变的影响。此外，俄罗斯的作用是与参与冲突的其他行为者共同构成的；通过与其他行为者的互动相互促进和制约。因此，该项目采用了建构主义的本体论和理论基础，以调查参与叙利亚冲突转变的团体的组成，以及他们的行动和互动对国际和当地战略环境的相互影响。这一构成分析对于理解行为者对其战略环境及其行动偏好的解释背后的理由以及这些因素对冲突转变的影响--即从暴力冲突向非暴力冲突的转变--是必要的。为了分析不断变化的、密不可分的胁迫和外交环境及其对参与和平进程的俄罗斯和叙利亚行为者的相互看法的影响，该项目将融合战略文化、有限理性和博弈论的概念，以评估以前的行动和互动如何影响对可行战略选择的看法。这一分析试图衡量俄罗斯的国际和当地和平建设倡议和军事干预在多大程度上导致了从暴力冲突到非暴力冲突的转变，以及这些相互作用如何改变了国内行为者参与和平建设倡议和暴力冲突的机会结构

The Syrian civil war has raged for just under ten years. The outbreak of the war coincided with the seemingdecline of US, or western, hegemony in the Middle East, opening opportunities for alternative powers to come tothe fore. The Syrian civil war provides the most detailed and complex case of rising power, namely Russian,intervention in one of the most internationalised and first socially mediated civil war. This project seeks tounderstand Russia's role in conflict transformation in the Syrian civil war and the impact of its actions on conflictdynamics.Since the fall of the USSR, Russian decision-makers have, at various points instrumentalised foreign policy toseek rapprochement with the West, diversify relations, and project power. Putin's second term as president hasushered a nationalist and assertive foreign policy to rebuild Russia's global power status and promote globalmultipolarity. Given Russia's relatively weak economic position amongst the BRICS, a diverse portfolio of policyinitiatives has been relied upon, such as the rhetorical contestation of liberal universalism and westernhegemony, and the instrumentalisation of civil conflict. Russia's military and non-military intervention in theSyrian conflict, in which the UN peace process was sidelined by Russia's Astana and Sochi initiatives andmilitary intervention, have ensured Russia's indispensability in matters of international security, precluding itsinternational isolation after its annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russia's criticism of previous US-led 'liberal'peacebuilding initiatives in the Middle East and elsewhere, where ruling regimes were toppled, leading to statefailure, instability and, at times, conflict re-emergence, attempts to recast norms of peacebuilding andintervention with sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs at their core. Thus, this project seeks toassess whether Russia's peacebuilding initiatives challenge liberal peacebuilding norms. Additionally, this projectseeks to place the peace process in Syria within the growing works identifying typologies of peacebuilding,conflict management, and peace.While the research focus is on Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict, the assumption that cyclical reciprocitybetween actors facilitates and constrains agency necessitates not only the analysis of domestic and externalactors' influence over conflict transformation but also of the impact of their interaction on this shift. Additionally,Russia's role is co-constituted with other actors involved in the conflict; facilitated and restrained by reciprocalinteraction with other actors. Thus, this project takes on a constructivist ontology and rationale for investigatingthe composition of the groups involved in Syrian conflict transformation, as well as the reciprocal impact of theiractions and interactions on the international and local strategic environments. This compositional analysis isnecessary to understand the rationale behind actors' interpretations of their strategic environment and theirpreferences for action, as well as the effects of these elements on conflict transformation; that is the shift fromviolent to non-violent conflict. To analyse the evolving coercive and diplomatic environments, which areinextricably connected, and their impact upon the mutual perceptions of Russian and Syrian actors engaged inpeace processes, this project will amalgamate concepts of strategic culture, bounded rationality, and gametheory to assess the ways in which previous actions and interactions shape perceptions of feasible strategicchoices. This analysis seeks to gauge the extent to which Russia's international and local peacebuildinginitiatives and military intervention have induced a shift from violent to non-violent conflict and how thesereciprocal interactions have altered opportunity structures for domestic actors to engage in peacebuildinginitiatives and violent co