Will coupling the Met Office forecast model to an ocean model improve weather predictions in the tropics?

科学背景：数值天气预报(NWP)是预报降雨、温度、风等气象变量的主要工具。这些预测被用于商业规划、保护生命和财产以及普通公众。数值预报是基于控制大气的物理定律的计算机模型。英国气象局(CASE合作伙伴)运行着世界上最先进的数值预报系统之一。作为改进预报的持续努力的一部分，他们正在超越“只考虑大气”的模式，并试验一种包括海洋过程在内的新的“海洋-大气耦合”数值预报系统。这可能会提高预报技能，特别是在热带地区，那里有与海洋强烈互动的长期天气系统，如马登-朱利安涛动(MJO)，它很难预测，并与有害天气有关。研究方法：你将加入UEA和英国气象局的天气、气候和数值预报专家团队。你将评估Met Office NWP模式的纯大气和耦合配置的预报技能，以量化耦合的好处，重点放在热带和MJO。此外，您将执行基于过程的分析，以确定任何技能提高背后的大气和海洋机制。你将为气象局未来发展他们的耦合数值预报系统提供建议。培训：您将接受使用PYTHON编程语言分析NWP模式输出的培训，包括使用由英国气象局开发的用于分析和可视化模式输出的特定PYTHON模块。根据你的背景，你将接受大气物理、气象学和海洋学方面的培训，以便为基于过程的分析做好准备。除了经常与气象局共同主管人员举行电话会议外，您还将访问气象局，接受运行和分析气象局模式的培训。你将在一个国际科学会议上展示你的工作。

Scientific background: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the main tool behind weather forecasting of rainfall, temperature, winds and other meteorological variables. These forecasts are relied on for business planning, to protect life and property and by the general public. NWP is based on computer models of the physical laws that govern the atmosphere. The Met Office (CASE partner) runs one of the most advanced NWP systems in the world. As part of their ongoing drive to improve forecasts, they are moving beyond their "atmosphere-only" model and trialling a new "coupled ocean-atmosphere" NWP system including ocean processes. This is likely to improve forecast skill, particularly in the Tropics, where there are long-lived weather systems that interact strongly with the ocean, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is hard to forecast and linked to hazardous weather.Research methodology: You will join a team of weather, climate and NWP experts at UEA and the Met Office. You will assess the forecast skill of atmosphere-only and coupled configurations of the Met Office NWP model to quantify the benefit of coupling, focusing on the Tropics and the MJO. Additionally, you will perform a process-based analysis to determine the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms behind any increase in skill. You will provide recommendations to the Met Office for future development of their coupled NWP system. Training: You will be trained in the analysis of NWP model output using the python programming language, including use of specific python modules developed by the Met Office for analysing and visualising model output. Depending on your background, you will be trained in atmospheric physics, meteorology and oceanography to equip you for the process-based analysis. In addition to frequent teleconferences with the Met Office co-supervisors, you will undertake visits to the Met Office for training in running and analysing the Met Office model. You will present your work at an international scientific conference.