Operational Research in the Stochastic Programming and Simulation

医院急诊科（ED）的业务必须对其外部环境的变化作出反应。对急诊科资源的需求、住院床位的供应和急诊科流程都极大地影响着科室的质量和安全。拟议的博士学位将研究急诊手术的实时模拟，并利用这些来优化该部门的管理。我们将与贝辛斯托克医院的ed合作。实时仿真是一个新颖的领域，具有令人兴奋的，高影响力的研究范围。在实时仿真中，仿真模型自动从真实系统中提取数据，从而能够准确预测未来的行为。这首先用于制造业（例如Xu et al. 2016），但仅开始在卫生系统中实施，以预测未来的行为（例如Hoot et al. 2009）。由于它能够将急诊科的当前状态与科室程序的详细建模和医院的当前状态结合起来，因此可以实时比较不同的管理流程。急诊科模拟模型所需的详细流程建模将使用离散事件模拟（DES）来实现。这将允许在随后的几周内快速比较管理急诊科的不同方法（例如员工名册、路线、紧急措施的实施）。我们期望学生开发新的方法来寻找ED的最佳设置，考虑到多个性能指标。新的贡献可能是优化和结果呈现的自动化。

Hospital accident and emergency department (ED) operations must respond to the changing nature of their external environment. The demand on ED resources, the supply of in-patient beds and the ED process all dramatically affect quality and safety within a department. The proposed doctorate will investigate real time simulation of ED operations and use these to optimise the management of the department. We will be working in collaboration with Basingstoke Hospital ED.Real time simulation is a novel area, with scope for exciting, high-impact research. In real time simulation, the simulation model automatically draws data from the real system, enabling accurate forecasting of future behaviour. This was first used in manufacturing (e.g. Xu et al. 2016) but has only started to be implemented in health systems to forecast future behaviour (e.g. Hoot et al. 2009). Because it is able to combine the current state of the ED with detailed modelling of the department procedures and the current state of the hospital, it enables different management processes to be compared in real time. The detailed process modelling necessary for the simulation model of the ED department will be achieved using discrete event simulation (DES. This will allow different approaches for managing the ED over subsequent weeks (e.g. staff rosters, routing, implementation of emergency measures) to be compared quickly. We anticipate the student developing novel methodology for finding the optimal set up for the ED, taking into account multiple performance indicators. The novel contribution is likely to be automation of the optimisation and the presentation of results.