Impact-based forecasting for the renewable energy sector

在接下来的20-30年里，英国的能源系统将发生重大变化，向低碳、净零排放、更可持续的世界过渡，因为它越来越依赖于依赖天气的资源，尤其是风能和太阳能。这一转变必须在气候变化的背景下进行管理，在气候变化中，洪水和风暴等极端事件变得更加频繁和严重，热浪和野火等其他新出现的灾害变得更加普遍。洪水、干旱和风暴对基本基础设施造成严重影响，包括能源系统及其提供的电力、食品、水和交通等基本服务。我们迫切需要找到更好的方法，为极端天气事件带来的挑战做好更充分的准备，提高应对能力。我们的电力系统对极端天气事件的恢复能力——特别是其准备和防止电力供应中断的能力，以及社会在停电时遵循警告保护公民和提供基本服务的能力——迫切需要重新评估。我们面临的挑战是，如何更好地预测高影响的极端事件，建立抵御能力，更好地装备我们的能源系统和基础设施？准确的天气预报是不够的。世界气象组织关于预报和预警最佳做法的指导方针不仅是预报天气事件，如暴雨或风暴，而且是预测其影响。基于影响和风险的预测从确定性陈述（如“明天的天气将看到50毫米的降雨和40英里/小时的阵风”）转变为以影响为导向的陈述（如“明天的天气将导致该地区的道路封闭和能源供应中断”）。基于影响的风险沟通方法——既针对公众，也针对部门利益相关者——已经被证明可以更好地在预警系统中建立信任，从而导致更有效的行动，联合国仙台框架认识到基于影响的方法的潜力越来越大。基于影响的预测具有传递信息的潜力，能够采取适当的行动，改进基于不同影响的一系列情景的规划，并包含有关预测信心水平的信息，以便更好地做出决策。因此，迫切需要开展综合基于影响的预测方法的研究，以增强能源网络对极端事件的应变能力和响应能力。然而，为了实现能源部门基于业务影响的预测和预警系统，需要逐步改变预测系统的共同设计方式和基于风险的信息的共享和交流方式。其目的是通过探索下一代基于影响的能源行业预测的潜力，应对极端事件带来的挑战。探索极端天气事件、能源中断和能源需求之间的相关性，无论是现在还是未来，以应对气候变化中更频繁的极端天气现象；与国家环保总局和SSE等利益相关者共同开发情景、工具和基于影响和风险的模型（例如，包括暴露、脆弱性和风险），以预测和评估能源部门相关的极端事件；探索能源部门在不同空间尺度（如城市、郊区和农村地区之间，或区域和国家尺度之间）和预测时间尺度（如临近预报、数值天气预报、远程概率预报）上基于影响的预报的机会和效益；并提出能源部门决策支持框架，支持实施基于业务影响的预测系统，包括如何设计净零能源系统以限制极端天气相关停电的影响，以及需要哪些新的操作程序来为极端事件做准备。

Over the next 20-30 years, the UK's energy system will undergo significant change as it transitions to a low carbon, Net-Zero, more sustainable world as it becomes increasingly dependent on weather-dependent resources, notably wind and solar power. This transition must be managed in the face of climate change, in which extreme events such as flooding and storms are becoming more frequent and severe, and other emerging hazards, such as heatwaves and wildfires, become more prevalent. Floods, drought and storms have serious impacts on essential infrastructure, including energy systems and the essential services they provide for power, food, water, and transport. There is a critical need to find better ways to be more prepared for and more resilient to the challenge posed by extreme weather events.The resilience of our electricity system to extreme weather events - in particular its ability to prepare for and prevent interruptions to supply of power, and the ability of society to follow warnings to protect its citizens and provide essential services in event of electricity outages - is in critical need of re-evaluation. The challenge is how can we better forecast high-impact extreme events, building resilience and better equip our energy system and infrastructure? Accurate weather forecasts are not enough. The WMO's guidelines on best practise for forecasting and warnings is evolving from not just forecasting weather events, such as heavy rainfall or storms, but forecasting their impacts. Impact- and risk-based forecasts move from deterministic statements such as "the weather tomorrow will see 50 mm of rainfall with wind gusts of 40 mph" to impact-oriented statements such as "the weather tomorrow will cause road closures and energy supply outages in this region". Impact-based approaches to risk communication - both to the general public and to sectoral stakeholders - have been shown to better build trust in warning systems leading to more effective actions, with the increasing potential of impact-based approaches recognised in the UN's Sendai Framework.Impact-based forecasts have the potential to relay messages that enable appropriate actions, improve planning for a range of scenarios based on different impacts, and contain information about level of confidence in the forecast for better decision-making. Thus there is a timely need to develop research integrating impact-based forecasting approaches to enhance the energy network's resilience and response to extreme events. To achieve an operational impact-based forecasting and warning system for the energy sector, however, requires a step-change in the way forecasting systems are co-designed and risk-based information is shared and communicated. The aim is to address challenges posed by extreme events by exploring the potential of next generation impact-based forecasts for the energy sector.Explore the correlations between extreme weather events, energy outages and energy demand, both now and in the future in response to more frequent extreme weather phenomena in a changing climate;Co-develop scenarios, tools and impact- and risk-based models (e.g. that incorporate exposure, vulnerability and risk) for the prediction and assessment of energy-sector relevant extreme events with stakeholders such as SEPA and SSE;Explore the opportunities and benefits of impact-based forecasting for the energy sector on different spatial scales (e.g., between city, suburban, and rural locations, or between regional and national scales) and forecasting time scales (e.g., nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, long-range probabilistic forecasting); andPropose an energy sector decision-support framework that supports the implementation of an operational impact-based forecasting system, including provision for how can a net-zero energy system be designed to limit the impact of extreme weather-related outages, and what new operational procedures are needed to prepare for extreme events.