Natural Adaptive Capability of Coral Reef Islands to Sea-level Rise and Implications for Future Human Occupation

人们普遍预计，由于洪水加剧，海平面上升将使在珊瑚礁平台上形成的低洼岛屿在几十年内无法居住。这种预测在很大程度上是基于这样的假设，即岛屿在地质上是惰性地貌，而实际上它们有能力从地貌上对海平面的变化做出反应。具体地说，溢流过程可以提高岛屿的顶部水平，这意味着岛屿是动态的，不会被淹没在原地。这种观念上的变化对珊瑚礁岛屿社区如何适应气候变化具有影响。这个项目将调查珊瑚礁岛屿对海平面上升的自然适应。将进行小型实验室实验，以调查珊瑚礁岛屿如何适应海平面上升。物理模式结果将用于验证地形动力学数值模式，该模式将用于进一步探索控制岛屿适应的相关因素。通过在马尔代夫的实地考察，该数值模式将用于评估不同海平面和海浪气候情景下几种珊瑚礁岛屿的未来轨迹。最后，将评估这些轨迹的社会影响，并探索人类适应战略。这一博士项目提供了获得一系列高级技能的机会，因为该项目包括在最先进的工程实验室中进行小规模物理建模、高级数值建模和在岛礁上进行实地调查。博士生还将花大量时间与外部合作伙伴在一起，进一步增强他们的知识和技能。到项目结束时，博士候选人应该很快就可以在GO、非政府组织或咨询机构中担任博士后研究员或高级沿海/海洋顾问。

It is a widespread expectation that sea-level rise will render low-lying islands formed on coral reef platforms uninhabitable within decades due to increased flooding. Such projections are largely founded on assumptions that islands are geologically inert landforms, whereas in reality they have the ability to morphologically respond to changing sea levels. Specifically, overwash processes can raise the island crest level, implying that islands are dynamic and will not drown in place. Such change in perception has implications for how reef island communities can adapt to climate change. This project will investigate this natural adaptation of coral reef islands to sea-level rise.Small-scale laboratory experiments will be conducted to investigate how coral reef islands adapt to sea-level rise. The physical model results will be used to validate a morphodynamic numerical model which will be used to further explore the relevant factors controlling island adaption. Informed by fieldwork in the Maldives, the numerical model will be used to evaluate, for different sea-level and wave climate scenarios, the future trajectories of several coral reef island types. Finally, the societal implications of these trajectories will be assessed and human adaptation strategies will be explored. This PhD project provides the opportunity to gain a range of advanced skills as the project includes small-scale physical modelling in a state-of-the-art engineering laboratory, advanced numerical modelling and field surveys on a reef island. The PhD candidate will also spend a significant amount of time with the external partners, further augmenting their knowledge and skills. By the end of the project, the PhD candidate should be imminently employable as a post-doctoral researcher or a high-level coastal/marine adviser in a GO, NGO or consultancy.