Improving flood risk management in small, rapid response catchments under climate change

降雨极端事件已变得更加频繁和强烈，预计未来将急剧增加。因此，了解降雨与径流的关系对于规划和管理对城市和自然环境的潜在影响至关重要，特别是洪水影响。小集水区是苏格兰和英国新规划发展的相关部分。这些集水区往往被气候变化洪水政策和法规所忽视，因为它们需要高分辨率的输入。UKCP 18-Local是一个新的高时空分辨率气候模式衍生产品，有可能更好地了解气候变化对较小流域的影响。该项目旨在为小流域气候变化的高分辨率和准确建模提供一种方法。预计建模结果将为地方监管当局和政策制定者提供更好的指导。作为第一步，该项目将评估现行法规和制度的缺陷。然后，将检查选择合适的数据集和潜在的数据转换。这将包括雨量计数据集的质量控制和UKCP-18-Local预测的偏差校正等过程。接下来，将选择合适的水文模型。为了在小流域的准确性，该模型将有望充分模拟水文过程的高分辨率。如果需要，将检查并生成准确描述先前水分条件的产品;还将访问高分辨率的路由处理。最后，该项目的结果将旨在为如何充分模拟小流域的洪水风险提供指导，特别是在气候变化情景下。

Rainfall extreme events have become more frequent and intense, with a predicted steeper increase in the future. For this reason, understanding the rainfall relationship with runoff is crucial for planning and managing potential impacts on urban and natural environments, notably flood impacts. Small catchments are a relevant portion of new planning developments in Scotland and the UK. These catchments are often neglected by climate change flooding policies and regulations, as they require high resolution inputs. UKCP18-Local, a new a high spatiotemporal-resolution climate model derived product, has the potential to provide a better understanding of climate change impacts in smaller catchments. This project aims to provide a methodology for high resolution and accurate modelling of climate change in small catchments. The results of the modelling are expected to provide better guidance for local regulation authorities and policy makers. In a first step, this project will access the flaws of current regulations and systems in place. Then, a selection of suitable datasets and potential data transformations will be checked. This will include processes such as quality control of rain gauge datasets and bias correction of UKCP-18-Local projections. Next, an appropriate hydrological model will be chosen. Aiming for accuracy in small catchments, this model will be expected to adequately model the hydrological processes at a high resolution. Products to accurately describe antecedent moisture conditions will be checked and generated if needed; routing processing at high resolution will also be accessed. Finally, the results of this project will aim to provide guidance on how to adequately model flood risks in small catchments, particularly under climate change scenarios.