Developing an attribution system based on seasonal and medium-range forecasts

极端事件归因旨在定量和定性地估计气候变化对极端天气事件的影响。最近的研究已转向中期预测，以研究较小和较短尺度的天气事件，如中纬度气旋。这些动态事件很难提前一周以上预报，因此预报员依赖于初始条件下的预测技能。该项目旨在开发一种方法，为过去和未来的气候模拟创造现实的初始条件。这一领域的成功将改善极端天气的适应措施，并为损失和损害讨论提供信息。该项目得到了英国气象局的CASE支持。

Extreme event attribution aims to quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. Recent studies have turned to medium-range forecasts to examine weather events of smaller and shorter scales such as mid-latitude cyclones. These dynamic events are challenging to forecast more than a week in advance and forecasters hence rely on predictive skill in initial conditions. This project aims to develop a methodology to create realistic initial conditions for past and future climate simulations. Success in this field will improve adaptation measures to extreme weather as well as inform loss and damage discussions. This project has CASE support from the UK Met Office.