Developing Methodology for Dynamic Predictors of Mental Health Needs and Patients' Outcomes

虽然理解因果机制的重要性已经被理解了很长一段时间，但探索这些关系的统计和数据驱动的方法仍在积极发展中。到目前为止，精神病理学和心理健康等领域的理论模型往往更具描述性。以前阻碍了对因果关系的详细评估的原因之一是缺乏时间充裕的数据来源，以便能够动态地调查因果顺序。然而，最近大型纵向研究的急剧增加和常规收集的健康数据的可获得性提供了新的潜力。但数据只是解决方案的一部分。该项目与兰开夏郡和南坎布里亚国家卫生服务(NHS)基金会信托基金(LSCFT)合作，将在精神病理学和人群心理健康的特定子领域内评估和开发方法学工具和框架，使研究人员和实践者能够利用新的数据集和利用时间方面的优势来研究因果关系和互惠关系，并为诸如“哪个优先？”等问题提供答案。在心理健康领域也被称为“鸡和蛋”问题。

While the importance of understanding causal mechanisms has been understood for a long time, statistical and data-driven methods to explore these relationships are still in active development. To date, theoretical models in areas such as Psychopathology and Mental Health are often more descriptive. One of the reasons why a detailed assessment of causality has previously been hampered is the lack of time-rich data sources allowing investigation into the order of causes and effects dynamically. However, recently a steep rise in large longitudinal studies and availability of routinely collected health data provide new potential. But data is only part of the solution. This project, in collaboration with Lancashire and South Cumbria National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust (LSCFT) will evaluate and develop the methodological tools and frameworks within specific subfields of psychopathology and population mental health to enable researchers and practitioners to harness new datasets and take advantage of temporal aspects to study causality and reciprocity, and provide answers to questions such as 'What comes first?' also known as 'Chicken and Egg' problems within the area of mental health.