Modeling climate futures, impacts, response and adaptation options for Arctic communities

北极正在经历变革性的气候变化，对运输系统产生深远影响。北冰洋航运季节的延长在本文中得到了充分的记录，气温升高也影响了冬季道路的运营期和安全。研究较少的是非正式的交通网络，涉及使用冰冻的湖泊，河流，海洋和冻土上未经维护的小径，这对于社区之间的旅行，文化遗址以及进行传统的狩猎和捕鱼活动至关重要，对土著社区特别重要。在作为土著健康适应气候变化（IHACC）项目（www.ihacc.ca）的一部分进行的研究中，我们记录了加拿大北极地区因纽特人社区的担忧，即由于气候变化而改变的路径访问正在影响各种健康结果，包括损害粮食安全，影响福祉和减少人身安全。在《自然气候变化》（福特等人，2019年），我们开发了步道访问模型，根据土著知识和科学，确定影响使用步道的能力和安全性的冰和天气条件的定量风险阈值。拟议的博士项目将把这项工作带到一个新的水平，研究预计未来海冰和天气条件的变化如何影响步道条件，与因纽特人社区密切合作。博士学位有三个主要目标：1。利用最新的气候模型信息，为该区域制定适当的气候情景，考虑到应对措施的不确定性，并考虑到潜在的高影响低可能性结果。2.使用已经开发的路径访问模型，使用降尺度气候模型数据来模拟气候和冰相关阈值以及相关路径访问在不同的变暖水平、不同的时间尺度以及不同世代和不同类别的气候模型（例如CMIP 5与CMIP 6）下可能受到的影响。3.与一些因纽特人社区合作，使用参与式情景规划方法，研究预计的变化对社区生计、文化和福祉可能意味着什么，并确定适应的机会。将特别注意模型不确定性分布的上部和下部：例如，我们现在承诺的最小变化是什么，这在局部可能意味着什么;可能遇到的最坏情况是什么。该博士项目将处于开发创新的跨学科方法的前沿，以连接科学和土著知识，并将涉及在全球气候变化最严重的地区工作。反映该项目的跨学科性质，学生将由社会科学家谁与土著知识系统在北极（福特，利兹U），自然科学家（劳，气象局），和流行病学家在加拿大谁拥有参与流行病学（哈珀，U阿尔伯塔）的专业知识工作的监督。学生将在加拿大北方的因纽特人社区度过相当长的时间，并在具有挑战性的跨文化背景和气候中舒适地工作。他们将有很强的建模和/或统计分析培训，并有兴趣从事高度跨学科和参与性项目。

The Arctic is undergoing transformative climate change, with profound implications for transportation systems. The lengthening of the shipping season in the Arctic Ocean is well-documented herein, with warming temperatures also compromising the operating period and safety of winter roads. Less studied are the more informal transportation networks involving use of unmaintained trails on frozen lakes, rivers, ocean, and the frozen ground, which are critically important for travel between communities, to cultural sites, and for practicing traditional hunting and fishing activities which have particular importance for Indigenous communities. In research conducted as part of the Indigenous Health Adaptation to Climate Change (IHACC) project (www.ihacc.ca), we have documented concerns among Inuit communities in Arctic Canada that changing trail access due to climate change is affecting a variety of health outcomes including compromising food security, impacting wellbeing, and reducing physical safety. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change (Ford et al., 2019) we developed trail access models which identify quantitative risk thresholds of ice and weather conditions that affect the ability and safety of using trails, based upon Indigenous knowledge and science. The proposed PhD project will take this work to the next level, examining how projected future changes in sea ice and weather conditions might affect trail conditions, working closely with Inuit communities. The PhD has 3 primary objectives:1. Draw on the latest climate model information to produce suitable climate scenarios for the region, accounting for uncertainty in response and taking account of potentially high impact low likelihood outcomes. 2. Using already developed trail access models, use the downscaled climate model data to model how climatic and ice-related thresholds and associated trail access might be affected at different levels of warming, over different timescales, and by different generations and classes of climate model (e.g. CMIP5 vs CMIP6). 3. Working with a number of Inuit communities, use participatory scenario planning approaches to examine what projected changes might mean for community livelihoods, culture, and well-being, and identify opportunities for adaptation. Particular attention will be paid to the upper and lower parts of the model uncertainty distributions: for example, what is the minimum change we are now committed to and what this might mean locally; what are the worst case scenarios that may be encountered. The PhD project will be on the cutting edge of developing innovative interdisciplinary approaches to connect science and Indigenous knowledge, and will involve working in the region witnessing the most climate change globally. Reflecting the interdisciplinary nature of the project, the student will be supervised by a social scientist who works with Indigenous knowledge systems in the Arctic (Ford, U of Leeds), a natural scientist (Lowe, Met Office), and an epidemiologist based in Canada who has expertise in participatory epidemiology (Harper, U Alberta). The student will be expected to spend considerable time in Inuit communities in northern Canada, and be comfortable working in challenging cross-cultural contexts and climates. They will have strong modeling and/or statistical analysis training and be interested in engaging in a highly interdisciplinary and participatory project.