Disasters as Conflict Multipliers: The Case of the Beirut Blast

2020年8月的贝鲁特爆炸是现代历史上最大的非核爆炸之一。它造成200多人死亡，破坏了一半以上的城市，并摧毁了港口（人权观察，2021年）。差不多两年后，内战的幽灵继续笼罩着这个地中海小国，因为它正在与自19世纪中叶以来最严重的三大经济危机之一作斗争（世界银行，2021年）。在对灾害后果的研究中，灾害冲突研究一直局限于二元对立：灾害要么造成国内冲突，要么促进社会团结和凝聚力。因此，灾难被想象为预先存在的冲突的外生事件。这种思路在很大程度上忽略了灾难对持续冲突结构的影响。本项目将以贝鲁特爆炸为个案研究，介绍灾害-冲突研究的三个主要理论见解：将灾害理解为在现有冲突环境中导致更多冲突爆发的冲突倍增器，而不仅仅是冲突的制造者/抑制者；极右翼团体在利用灾难进行政治提升中的作用；以及非政府组织和外国- -主要是西方- -援助在促成灾后冲突方面的疏忽作用。根据最初的假设，脆弱性加剧会加剧灾害背景下的现有冲突，本节旨在研究的问题是，非政府组织管理外国资金的不平等是否与冲突加剧有关。虽然这种现象可以说影响了多个弱势群体，但该项目的重点将放在什叶派，因为他们是这些边缘化社区中唯一一个在爆炸发生前就卷入冲突的群体。将采用定量和定性方法的混合方法框架来支持反思性和归纳性研究设计。研究首先确定了造成黎巴嫩两个边缘化群体——国内流离失所的什叶派和叙利亚难民——灾前脆弱性的关键历史节点。这将通过对黎巴嫩国内移民和叙利亚难民危机的文献进行批判性审查来进行。然后，我将对贝鲁特爆炸前后贝鲁特边缘社区的经济脆弱性进行定量评估。除了现有的公共市政记录外，这些数据将主要通过对什叶派和叙利亚居民随机抽样的简短调查获得，以衡量收入水平、失业率和防范措施。

The Beirut blast of August 2020 was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in modern history. It left more than 200 dead, damaged over half of the city, and pulverized its port (Human Rights Watch, 2021). Almost two years later, the specter of civil conflict continues to loom over the small Mediterranean nation as it battles with one of the top three worst economic crises since the mid-nineteenth century (World Bank, 2021). In studying the outcomes of disasters, disaster-conflict research has limited itself to a binary: disasters either create civil conflict or they promote social solidarity and cohesion. Disasters are therefore imagined as exogenous events to preexisting conflicts. This line of thinking largely neglects disaster effects on ongoing conflict structures. This project will draw on the Beirut blast as a case study to introduce three main theoretical insights into disaster-conflict research: understanding disasters as conflict multipliers that lead to more conflict outbreaks in existent conflict settings, not simply as conflict creators/inhibitors; the role of far-right groups in the instrumentalization of disaster for political ascent; and the inadvertent function of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and foreign - primarily Western- aid in contributing to post-disaster conflict. Following the initial hypothesis that intensifying vulnerabilities can aggravate existing conflict in disaster contexts, the problem this section aims to investigate is whether the inequalities in administering foreign funds by NGOs can be linked to conflict exacerbation. While this phenomenon can be said to have impacted multiple vulnerable groups, the focus of the project will be on the Shia, since they are the only one of such marginalized communities that have been involved in conflicts predating the blast. A mixed-methods framework of quantitative and qualitative methods will be adopted to support a reflexive and inductive study design. The research begins by identifying the key historical junctures that created pre-disaster vulnerabilities of two marginalized communities in Lebanon, internally displaced Shia and Syrian refugees. This will be performed through a critical review of the literature on Lebanese internal migration and Syrian refugee crisis. I will then employ a quantitative assessment of economic vulnerability before and after the Beirut blast in Beirut's marginalized neighborhoods. In addition to existing public municipal records, this data will mainly be procured through short-form surveys that will be administered to a randomized sample of Shia and Syrian residents, measuring levels of income, unemployment, and preparedness measures.