Building evidence for action: Novel assessment of ocean acidification impacts around the UK

背景：海洋自然地吸收大气中的二氧化碳；二氧化碳与水反应形成一种弱酸，然后作为海洋碳酸盐系统的一部分迅速解离。这种碳酸盐体系通过碳酸钙的风化作用，缓冲了地质时间尺度上酸度(或pH)的变化。然而，由于人为活动，大气二氧化碳排放和随后海洋吸收的速度急剧增加，导致“海洋酸化”(OA)。油酸是碳酸盐体系的一种变化，包括pH值的降低。在未来最糟糕的排放情景下，全球范围内的海洋酸度预计将增加150%。海洋生态系统对海洋生物、生态系统和生态系统服务具有广泛的后果，主要造成有害影响。例如，美国西海岸的贝类水产养殖设施已经因为pH值较低的水而损失了牡蛎幼体；在一些pH值较低的水域已经发现了自由游泳的翼足类蜗牛，这种蜗牛是鲑鱼等鱼类的重要食物，具有溶解的贝壳。这些影响只是环境变化正在并将继续影响社会和经济的例子。最近的证据(OSPAR，QSR2023 in Prep.)数据显示，英国沿海水域一直在经历快速的酸化，具有高度的季节性变化。这项新的数据和模型分析预测，英国沿海水域将继续酸化，预计到本世纪30年代将出现极端条件时期，这可能会导致英国一些重要物种的急性应激反应。通过其研究计划以及与联合国气候变化框架公约、全球海洋酸化观测网络(GOA-ON)、东北大西洋区域Goa-on中心和国际抗击海洋酸化联盟(OA Alliance)的合作，英国政府一直在考虑如何通过DEFRA推进海洋酸化研究和行动。开放存取联盟呼吁采取行动，承认国家、机构或社区应制定并交付开放存取行动计划。这些计划围绕五个目标提出了行动建议：1.增进科学理解；2.减少海洋酸化的原因；3.建立适应和复原力；4.提高公众认识；5.建立持续的国际支持。开放获取联盟还就如何利用计划支持政治框架和实现高层目标提供指导，如联合国可持续发展目标、奥斯巴公约和世界气象组织气候指标。然而，为了决定最佳行动方针，需要对脆弱性进行区域和地方考虑，包括提供关于物种风险、潜在适应反应的证据，以及考虑开放式获取适应战略的障碍。目标：该项目旨在开发一种新的空间分辨评估，以评估开放式获取对英国物种、栖息地和生态系统服务的影响，建立可用于为与英国开放式获取影响和适应相关的行动提供信息的证据。方法：研究将集中于三个目标：1.审查与开放式获取相关的英国海洋环境的现状，并评估关键生境和生物群的脆弱性；2.对生态系统和生态系统服务的未来风险进行预测；3.了解利益相关者的脆弱性、潜在的适应战略和任何潜在的行动障碍，并评估行动对减少联合王国周围开放式获取的风险的潜在影响。这项研究将直接向Defra的证据团队提供信息，并为未来的政策和管理计划做出贡献。

Background: The ocean naturally absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere; CO2 reacts with water forming a weak acid before rapidly dissociating as part of the marine carbonate system. This carbonate system buffers changes in acidity (or pH) over geological timescales through calcium carbonate weathering. However, the rate of atmospheric CO2 emissions, and subsequent oceanic uptake, has increased dramatically as a result of anthropogenic activities, resulting in "ocean acidification" (OA). OA is a change in the carbonate system including a decrease in pH. Under future 'worst-case' emissions scenarios the oceans are projected to become 150% more acidic on a global scale. OA has wide-ranging consequences for marine organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services, mostly resulting in detrimental impacts. For example, shellfish aquaculture facilities on the west coast of the USA already experience losses in oyster larvae as a result of lower pH water; pteropods, free-swimming snails that are important food for fish such as salmon, are already found with dissolving shells in some regions of lower pH water. These impacts are just examples of how environmental change is, and will continue to, affect society and the economy. Recent evidence (OSPAR, QSR2023 in prep.) shows that coastal waters around the UK have been experiencing rapid rates of acidification, with high levels of seasonal variability. This new data and modelling analysis forecasts areas of UK coastal waters to continue to acidify, with periods of extreme conditions expected by the 2030s, that could cause acute stress response in some important UK species.Through its research programmes and engagement with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), the North East Atlantic regional GOA-ON Hub, and the International Alliance to Combat Ocean Acidification (OA Alliance), the UK government, through DEFRA, has been considering how to move forward with OA research and action. The OA Alliance calls for action, recognising that states, institutions or communities, should produce and deliver on an OA Action Plan. These plans provide recommendations for action based around five goals: 1. Advance scientific understanding; 2. Reduce the causes of ocean acidification; 3. Build adaptation and resilience; 4. Expand public awareness; and 5. Build sustained international support. The OA Alliance also provide guidance on how plans can be used to support political frameworks and deliver on high-level goals, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, OSPAR convention, and the World Meteorological Organisation Climate Indicators. However regional and local consideration of vulnerabilities are needed in order to decide the best course of action, including providing evidence about the risks to species, potential adaptation responses, as well as considering barriers to OA adaptation strategies. Aims: This project aims to develop a novel spatially resolved assessment of OA impacts to UK species, habitats and ecosystem services, building evidence that can be used to inform action relating to OA impacts and adaptation in the UK. Approach: The research will be focussed around three objectives: 1. Review the current status of the UK marine environment in relation to OA and assess the vulnerability of key habitats and biota; 2. Make projections of future risk to ecosystems and ecosystem services; 3. Understand stakeholder vulnerabilities, potential adaptation strategies and any potential barriers to action, and assess the potential impact of action on reducing the risk to OA around the UK. The research will directly inform Defra's evidence team and contribute to future policies and management plans.