Mum's the word... using text analysis to better understand expressions and experiences related to fertility

新的数据来源正在扩大人口统计学的机会。基于调查的方法忽略了一些我们需要了解的人口和社会过程，比如生活各个领域的复杂情绪和经历，从就业到伴侣关系，再到生育治疗。数字追踪数据提供了潜在的实时好处，使我们能够通过避免调查的时间滞后来跟踪社会变化。例如，本研究中提出的主要数据来源从2006年到今天，数据以分钟为单位。不仅仅是简单地获取未开发的数据，这项研究的兴趣在于如何通过捕捉生育计划的动态和高度个性化的形成，将这些数据用于人口统计研究。在生育研究中使用调查引领了这一领域，但是，调查措辞和回应选项中嵌入的假设构建了人口统计学家、公众和政策制定者如何解释人口动态（Chatterjee和Riley 2018）。本研究旨在避免调查的中间人，利用互联网和大规模文本分析应用于生育研究，以回答调查可能无法回答的问题-与情感，经验和意图有关。这项研究对现实世界的影响，是由于有机会更近距离地观察个人，以及个人如何在数字时代走向为人父母，在这个时代，互联网越来越多地成为信息的来源，也是表达的场所。通过使用自发和匿名的表达，可以深入了解面对面的教育信息是如何缺乏的，如何在调查中代表性不足的群体可能在研究中被抛在后面，以及如何改善个人经验的代表性。从网络论坛到手机app，通过互联网数据的粒度和海量，可以更好地理解向为人父母过渡的每一步。互联网正在改变人们成为父母的方式，通过使用生育跟踪应用程序跟踪月经周期，以达到怀孕或避免怀孕的目的，同时利用社交媒体平台表达情感和经历。这项拟议研究的重点将放在总体生育率上，尽管最初的研究将建立在以女性为主的平台上。随着研究的进展，本提案旨在建立男性生育能力和非异性恋生育能力的知识，这在人口统计学中有时很难研究，部分原因是缺乏可用的数据。

New data sources are expanding opportunities in Demography. Survey-based methods miss some of the demographic and social processes that we need to understand, such as complex emotions and experiences across all areas of life, from employment, to partnerships, and to fertility treatment. Digital trace data offers a potential real-time benefit, allowing us to track societal changes by avoiding the time lags of surveys. For instance, the main source of data proposed in this research spans from 2006 to today, with data on a minute-by-minute timescale. More so than simply accessing untapped data, the interest of this research is in how using this data towards demographic research, by capturing the dynamic and highly personal formation of fertility plans. The use of surveys in fertility research leads the field, but, the assumptions embedded in the survey wording and response options construct how demographers, the public, and policymakers interpret population dynamics (Chatterjee and Riley 2018). This research intends to avoid the middle-man of the survey by using the Internet and the application of large-scale text analysis for fertility research in order to answer questions that surveys maybe fail to answer - relating to emotions, experiences and intentions.The real-world impact of this research is driven by the opportunities to look closer at the individual and how individuals navigate the pathway to parenthood in a digital age, where ever more, the Internet is a source of information and also a place for expression. By using spontaneous and anonymous expressions, insights can be made into how in-person educational information is lacking, how the groups that are under-represented in surveys may be left behind in research, and how the representation of individual's experiences can be improved. From web forums to mobile phone apps, each step of the transition to parenthood can be better understood through the granularity and the masses of Internet data. The Internet is changing the way people progress to parenthood, by tracking the menstrual cycle with the intention to become or avoid becoming pregnant with fertility tracking apps, while using social media platforms to express emotions and experiences along the way. The focus of this proposed research will be on fertility overall, although the initial research will be built on female-majority platforms. As the research progresses, this proposal aims to build on the knowledge of male fertility and non-heterosexual fertility, which are sometimes difficult to study in demography due in part to the lack of available data.