The Democratic Turnaround: Origins and Patterns of Averted Autocratization

一些国家为什么以及如何避免正在发生的民主倒退？虽然以前的研究非常关注世界上几个国家的民主衰落，但对诱发民主倒退停止的民主制度的研究仍然不足。我的博士研究旨在通过确定和理论化政治精英，公民的亲民主行为和经济条件之间的动态，导致民主在一段时间的自我封闭后恢复（即，民主的转变）。为了将我的理论模型与经验数据进行对比，我结合了联合收割机关于民主和经济发展的原始和二手数据，以及来自全球南方民主国家的调查实验和定性证据。首先，建立在一个原始的数据集上的政治制度经历了民主的回归和其他中央观察，我选择的情况下，小n比较的起源和轨迹避免自动化。其次，利用因子实验，我阐述了反对派的战略和公民的民主承诺在选举环境中的作用。第三，我研究社会经济条件对公民动员的影响，以及采用纵向建模的亲民主转变的前景。除了对民主和民主韧性研究的理论和实证贡献外，我的研究还将对政策制定者，民主活动家和民间社会组织产生影响。

Why and how do some countries avert ongoing democratic backsliding? While previous research has paid much attention to the decline of democracy in several countries worldwide, democratic systems in which induced democratic backsliding was halted remain understudied. My doctoral research seeks to address this gap by identifying and theorising on dynamics between political elites, pro-democratic behaviour of citizens, and economic conditions that lead to a recovery of democracy after a period of autocratization (i.e., a democratic turnaround). To confront my theoretical models with empirical data, I combine original and secondary data on democratic and economic development as well as survey-experimental and qualitative evidence from democracies in the Global South. First, building on an original dataset on political systems experiencing a democratic comeback and other central observables, I select cases for a small-n comparison concerning the origins and trajectories of averted autocratization. Second, leveraging factorial experiments, I elaborate on the role of opposition strategies and citizens' democratic commitment in electoral settings. Third, I examine the impact of socio-economic conditions on citizen mobilisation and the prospects of a pro-democratic turnaround employing longitudinal modelling. Besides theoretical and empirical contributions to research into democracy and democratic resilience, my study will yield implications for policymakers, pro-democratic activists, and civil society organisations.