Developing a New Risk and Needs Assessment Tool for Young People Who Have Displayed Harmful Sexual Behaviour

在英国，儿童和年轻人的性伤害仍然是一个日益严重的问题，儿童慈善机构Barnardo报告说，仅在2013年至2016年期间，儿童和年轻人的性伤害就增加了近80%。据估计，18岁以下的人实施了25%的家庭内虐待，占所有儿童性虐待的三分之一到三分之二。在表现出有害性行为的年轻人中，有三分之二的人自己也经历过类似的行为，因此，满足这些儿童的保障和福利需求仍然是当务之急。风险评估工具经常被用来优先考虑那些最有可能重新犯罪的人，并帮助指导治疗和干预目标。然而，目前用于评估这一人群的风险和需求的许多工具尚未得到充分验证;这些工具是根据对成年性犯罪者的研究开发的;不适用于所有类型的青少年;或者更令人关切的是，不能准确预测风险。该项目与CASE的合作伙伴G-Map Services密切合作，旨在开发一种新的风险和需求评估工具，供表现出有害性行为的年轻人使用。该项目将根据对文献的系统审查，确定有害性行为的已知风险和保护因素，以便制定一个新的编码时间表，从G-Map Services提供的一组病例档案中对这些因素进行编码。确定风险和保护因素可以告知从业人员什么可能增加或减少青少年犯罪或重新犯罪的可能性。为了验证这一工具，该项目将设法通过国家警察计算机获取这一组案件档案的追溯性累犯数据，以此评估所开发工具的预测准确性。这样做可以确定该工具的敏感性和特异性，从而避免低估或高估风险，并确保通过提供适当的服务可以查明和管理案件。通过与CASE合作伙伴密切合作，这一风险评估工具将提供给该领域的其他从业人员，同时由CASE合作伙伴提供定制培训。因此，该项目将有助于为区域和国家关于有害性行为的政策提供信息。

Sexual harm committed by children and young people remains an increasing problem in the UK, with the children's charity Barnardo's reporting that between 2013-2016 alone, sexual harm committed by children and young people increased by nearly 80%. Estimates show that those under the age of 18 perpetrate 25% of intra-familial abuse and up to a third to two-thirds of all child sexual abuse. With two thirds of young people who display harmful sexual behaviours having experienced similar behaviour themselves, it remains imperative that the safeguarding and welfare needs of these children are being met. Risk assessment tools are frequently utilised to prioritise those most at risk of reoffence and to help guide treatment and intervention goals. However, many tools currently in place for the assessment of risk and need in this population are not fully validated; have been developed from research on adult sexual offenders; are not applicable to all subtypes of adolescents; or more concerningly, do not accurately predict risk. Operating in close partnership with the CASE partner, G-Map Services, this project aims to develop a new risk and needs assessment tool for use with young people who show harmful sexual behaviour. This project will identify known risk and protective factors for harmful sexual behaviours based on a systematic review of the literature, in order to develop a novel coding schedule to code these factors from a cohort of case files provided by G-Map Services. Identifying risk and protective factors can inform practitioners as to what is likely to increase or decrease an adolescent's likelihood of offending or reoffending. In order to validate this tool, this project will seek to access retrospective recidivism data via the police national computer for the case files of this cohort, as a means of assessing the predictive accuracy of the tool developed. In doing so, the sensitivity and specificity of the tool can be established, thereby avoiding the under- or over-estimation of risk and ensuring cases can be identified and managed with appropriate service provision. Through working closely with the CASE partner, this risk assessment tool will be made available for other practitioners in the field, alongside bespoke training provided by the CASE partner. Consequently, this project will help inform both regional and national policy on sexually harmful behaviours.