Towards an integration of demand- and supply-side policies for deep decarbonisation

到目前为止，深度脱碳的政策和创新战略主要集中在供给侧。一个关键的办法是开发新技术和改造社会技术系统，以便能够以低碳技术提供电力供应或运输等服务（例如，太阳能光伏、风能或电动车辆）。然而，为了达到净零排放目标，刺激需求方面的深远变化也至关重要（Barrett等人，2021年）。该项目偏离了需求和供应方变化以及刺激它们的政策需要（更好地）平衡和整合以实现快速和全行业脱碳的假设。根据CREDS低能源需求情景，英国目前实施的政策工具到2050年只能减少5%的能源需求，而不会进一步减少需求，英国电力系统将增长到目前规模的四倍以支持净零目标（Barrett等人，2021年）。减少能源需求可能比采用新技术更具成本效益，更及时，风险更小（同上）。此外，所有行业都有可能减少能源需求，包括水泥、钢铁、航运或航空等“难以脱碳”的行业（Davis等人，2018).难以实现脱碳的行业是那些低碳（供应方）替代品尚不容易获得或成本非常高的行业。目前已确定的此类行业深度脱碳的途径包括碳捕获和储存（CCS）、氢和氢基燃料以及材料替代和回收等方法（Element Energy，2020; Norman等人，2021年）。鉴于大多数供应方方法（例如，CCS、氢气）仍处于非常早期的发展阶段，目前尚不清楚它们是否能在实践中实现，并及时实现2050年的目标。在我的论文中，我将研究深度脱碳的需求和供应方选择以及刺激它们的政策。虽然技术报告已经确定了各种深度脱碳途径，但其可行性和实践中的不同实施路径仍有待更好地理解。深度脱碳所需的需求侧和供应侧行动和政策的混合将导致不同参与者之间的冲突和冲突，这些参与者在深度脱碳路径方面具有不同的优先事项，价值观和利益。我的总体目标是研究如何更好地整合需求侧和供应侧政策，以在（选定的）难以脱碳的行业实现净零排放。分析将涉及四个主要要素，或论文项目。i）深度脱碳政策组合研究，ii）深度脱碳话语研究，iii）特定难以脱碳行业需求减少的冲突和冲突研究，以及iv）未来可能出现的新需求和需求研究（例如，围绕空间旅游业）以及如何制定预防性政策来解决这些问题。

So far, policies and innovation strategies for deep decarbonisation have mostly focused on the supply side. A key approach is to develop new technologies and to transform socio-technical systems so that services such as power supply or transport can be provided with low-carbon technologies (e.g., solar-PV, wind or electric vehicles). However, in order to reach net-zero emission targets, it will be vital to also stimulate far-reaching changes on the demand side (Barrett et al., 2021). This project departs from the assumption that demand- and supply-side changes, together with the policies which stimulate them, need to be (better) balanced and integrated to achieve swift and sector-wide decarbonisation.According to the CREDS low energy demand scenarios, the currently implemented policy instruments in the United Kingdom (UK) would only reduce energy demand by 5% by 2050 and without further demand reductions, the UK electricity system would grow to four times its current size to support net-zero targets (Barrett et al., 2021). Reducing energy demand can be more cost effective, timely, and less risky than the implementation of new technologies (ibid.) Also, energy demand reductions are possible across all sectors, including "difficult to decarbonise" industries such as cement, steel, shipping or aviation (Davis et al., 2018).Difficult to decarbonise industries are those sectors for which low-carbon (supply-side) alternatives are not yet readily available, or only at very high costs. Currently identified pathways to deep decarbonisation of2such industries include carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and hydrogen base fuels, and approaches like material substitution and recycling (Element Energy, 2020; Norman et al., 2021). Given that most supply-side approaches (e.g., CCS, hydrogen) are in very early stages of development, it remains unclear whether they can be pursued in practice and in time for meeting the 2050 targets.In my thesis, I will study demand- and supply-side options for deep decarbonisation and the policies that stimulate them. While technical reports have identified various deep decarbonisation pathways, their feasibility and different implementation paths in practice remain to be better understood. The mixes of demand- and supply-side actions and policies required for deep decarbonisation will give rise to contestation and conflict between different actors who have different priorities, values and interests they represent in relation to deep decarbonisation paths.My overall goal is to examine how demand- and supply-side policies can better be integrated to reach net-zero emissions in (selected) difficult to decarbonise industries. The analysis will involve four major elements, or paper projects. i) a study of policy mixes for deep decarbonisation, ii) a study of the discourse around deep decarbonisation, iii) a study of conflict and contestation in demand reduction for a specific difficult to decarbonise industry, and iv) a study on new demands and needs that might arise in the future (e.g., around space tourism) and how to develop precautionary policies to address these.