The Indirect Estimation of Migration

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究项目的主要目的是开发一种正式的基于模型的方法，用于通过结合和借用来自多个地理区域，时间段和数据源的信息，在这些数据不充分，不完整或不可用的情况下推断移民流动。为实现这一目标，该项目将借鉴在以下四个领域开展的工作：人口统计学中的间接估计方法、地理学中的空间相互作用建模、统计学中缺失数据的基于模型的分析方法以及移徙率年龄分布中的年龄分布的数学表示。 该项目开发的推理方法将在1960年、1970年、1980年和1990年人口普查的已知移民数据上进行测试，然后将其应用于美国社区移民调查数据以及另外两个国家（加拿大和印度尼西亚）的可比数据。这些数据将在这些国家的无偿国家人口统计学家（顾问）的帮助下收集和分析。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The principal aim of this research project is to develop a formal model-based approach for inferring migration flows in settings where such data are inadequate, incomplete, or unavailable by combining and borrowing information from several geographical areas, time periods, and data sources. To accomplish this, the project will draw on work carried out in four areas: indirect estimation methods in demography, spatial interaction modeling in geography, model-based approaches to analyses with missing data in statistics, and mathematical representations of regularities in the age profiles of migration rates. The inferential methods developed by this project will be tested on known migration data drawn from the censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990, and then they will be applied to the American Community Survey Data on migration, and comparable data for two additional nations: Canada and Indonesia. These latter data will be assembled and analyzed with the help of unpaid national demographers (consultants) in those countries.