Climate change, marine fisheries and conservation in West Greenland

在整个历史中，至少可以追溯到公元前2500年[1]，西格陵兰人类社区的生存与海洋生态系统及其生物资源（鱼类，海洋哺乳动物，海鸟和北极熊）密切相关。即使在今天，经济几乎完全依赖于渔业-以前是大西洋鳕鱼，但现在几乎完全是虾[2，3]。然而，该地区正面临气候变暖和格陵兰冰盖融化的挑战性影响，导致渔业和野生动物之间可能出现权衡。定量评估这些影响需要动态数学模型。该项目将为该地区实施一个由气候变化情景驱动的动态生态系统模型，这为一个有动力的博士生提供了一个独特的培训和研究机会。该项目将为西格陵兰海洋生态系统实施StrathE 2 EPolar食物网模型[4]。该项目要回答的问题是：-未来渔业管理战略需要如何改变以确保可持续性，这对土著人类社区意味着什么？高营养级（鸟类、鳍足类、鲸目动物和海洋哺乳动物）对捕捞的间接（食物网介导的）影响的敏感性如何，环境条件的变化将如何影响这一点？由于气候变化，在收获和野生动物保护之间可能出现什么样的权衡？在NERC北冰洋变化方案中开发的巴伦支海[4]和东格陵兰地区的StrathE 2 EPolar模型（可作为R统计编程环境的软件包https：//marineresourcemodelling.gitlab.io/sran/index.html）将为学生提供启动平台。StrathE 2 EPolar包括一个生态模型和一个耦合的捕鱼船队模型。生态模型中的化学和生物功能团包括碎屑、硝酸盐和氨，通过微型浮游生物、底栖生物和鱼类，一直到高级捕食者（鸟类、鳍足类、鲸目动物和北极熊）。实施StrathE 2 EPolar所需的十年间隔环境输入数据将通过从1980-2100年使用RCP 8.5和2.6温室气体排放情景运行的NEMO-MEDUA地球系统模型[5]的现有输出降尺度来收集。学生将接受培训，以开发和实施新的数学公式，以代表极地特定的生态在StrathE 2 EPolar，并在代码中实现它们。奥尔森，B.（1998年）。Acta Borealia，15：2，81-128.2. Buch，E.，等（2004）。西北大西洋渔业科学杂志，34：13-28。3. Garde，E.（2013年）。西格陵兰大陆架。WWF -丹麦。56页4。希思，M.R.等（2021年）。Ambio，Changing Arctic Ocean Special Issue，doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01616-9.5. Yool，A.等（2015年）。地球物理研究杂志，海洋120：7771-7790。

Throughout history, back to at least 2500 BC [1], the survival of human communities in West Greenland has been closely linked to the marine ecosystem and its living resources (fish, marine mammals, seabirds and polar bears). Even today, the economy is almost entirely dependent on fishing - previously for Atlantic cod but now almost entirely shrimps [2,3]. However the region is facing challenging impacts from climate warming and melting of the Greenland icecap, leading to likely trade-offs between fisheries and wildlife. Quantitatively assessing these impacts requires dynamic mathematical models. This project will implement a dynamic ecosystem model for the region, driven by climate change scenarios, which represents a unique training and research opportunity for a motivated PhD student.The project will implement the StrathE2EPolar food web model [4] for the West Greenland marine ecosystem. The questions to be answered by the project are:- How will fisheries management strategies need to change in the future to ensure sustainability, and what will this mean for indigenous human communities?- What is the sensitivity of high trophic levels (birds, pinnipeds, cetaceans and maritime mammals) to the indirect (food web mediated) effects of fishing, and how will this be affected by changing environmental conditions?- What trade-offs between harvesting and wildlife conservation may emerge as a result of climate change?A StrathE2EPolar model for the Barents Sea [4] and East Greenland regions, developed in the NERC Changing Arctic Ocean Programme (available as a package for the R statistical programming environment https://marineresourcemodelling.gitlab.io/sran/index.html), will provide the launch-pad for the studentship. StrathE2EPolar includes an ecology model and a coupled fishing fleet model. Chemical and biological functional guilds in the ecology model span detritus, nitrate and ammonia, through micro-plankton, benthos and fish, to high level predators (birds, pinnipeds, cetaceans and polar bears). The environmental input data required to implement StrathE2EPolar for decadal intervals will be assembled by downscaling from existing outputs of the NEMO-MEDUA earth system model [5] run from 1980-2100 using RCP 8.5 and 2.6 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The student will be trained to develop and implement new mathematical formulations to represent polar-specific ecology in StrathE2EPolar, and implement them in the code.1. Olsen,B. (1998). Acta Borealia, 15:2, 81-128.2. Buch, E., et al. (2004). Journal of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Science, 34: 13-28. 3. Garde,E. (2013). The West Greenland shelf. WWF - Denmark. 56pp.4. Heath, M.R. et al. (2021). Ambio, Changing Arctic Ocean Special Issue, doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01616-9.5. Yool, A. et al. (2015). Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans 120: 7771-7790.