Explaining Very Low Fertility

描述(申请人提供)：该项目采用创新的多学科方法和前沿理论，通过关注意大利寻求对生育率极低的更好解释，意大利在过去15年中一直是世界上生育率最低的国家之一。它的目的是通过提出多方法推理的战略，同时为理解转型后社会的人口动态提供新的方法，从而在方法论上有利于人口研究。如此低的生育率在社会、经济和政治上的重要性怎么夸大都不为过，这会导致人口迅速老龄化，社会层面的抚养比率显然无法承受(以及国家层面的人口前景，如果不进行大规模移民，这些人口将迅速减少)，同时对人们的生活产生重大影响。意大利的案例引起了学术界的关注，不仅是因为它的生育率极低，还因为它与主流理论的预测有如此戏剧性的矛盾。从经济上讲，意大利是欧洲女性劳动力参与率最低的国家之一。此外，意大利那些拥有最好的社会服务，包括公共托儿服务的地区，也属于生育率最低的地区。意大利的情况也不能用占主导地位的文化理论来解释，该理论认为世俗化和个人化是导致极低生育率的关键，因为意大利可以说是欧洲最注重家庭的国家。这项研究结合了人类学、社会学和人口学的方法和理论，基于这样一种信念，即尽管调查数据非常有价值，但单凭调查数据并不能让学者们充分解释非常低的生育率。它认为经济和制度力量主要通过文化过程的视角对个人行为产生影响，拒绝任何简单的经济和文化“变量”的分离。理解这些文化过程需要分析当地的社会背景，以及人们如何构建现实，操纵规范，以及人们所说和所做之间的差异。这样的数据只能通过系统的人种学获得。四位人类学家将各自花15个月的时间研究意大利四个不同城市的生殖文化，其中两个在北部(博洛尼亚、帕多瓦)，两个在南部(那不勒斯、卡利亚里)。特别关注父母对子女生育决策的影响，以及同龄人的影响。每个民族志学者将遵循共同的参与者观察指南，在工薪阶层和中产阶级社区进行研究，并采用包括生活史矩阵在内的共同方案。访谈将在每个地点进行，采访50名年龄在23-42岁的妇女及其母亲。此外，将按照生命历程方法，通过纵向和多层次技术审查一系列国家一级的意大利调查。我们还结合她们的工作历史来审查妇女的生殖生活过程，控制个人和夫妇一级的特点，以及社区和区域一级的特点，以新的方式阐明妇女的工作与生育之间的关系，以及影响这些关系的文化和社区背景。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project employs innovative multidisciplinary methodology and cutting-edge theory to seek a better explanation for very low fertility by focusing on Italy, a country that for the past 15 years has had one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. It aims to benefit population studies methodologically by suggesting strategies for multi-method inference, while offering new approaches to understanding demographic dynamics in post-transition societies. The social, economic, and political importance of such low fertility can hardly be exaggerated, producing rapidly aging populations and apparently unsupportable dependency ratios at the societal level (and the prospect of national-level populations that, barring massive immigration, will rapidly dwindle), while having major implications for people's lives. The Italian case has attracted scholarly attention not only because of its extremely low fertility, but because it so dramatically contradicts the predictions of prevailing theories. Economically, Italy has one of Europe's lowest rates of female labor force participation. Moreover, those areas of Italy with the best social services, including public childcare, are among those with the lowest fertility. Nor is the Italian case explained by the predominant cultural theory, which identifies secularization and individualization as the keys to very low fertility, for Italy is arguably the most family-oriented country in Europe. This study, combining anthropological, sociological, and demographic methods and theory, is based on the belief that, while extremely valuable, survey data alone will not allow scholars to adequately explain very low fertility. It views economic and institutional forces as having effects on individual behavior primarily through the lens of cultural processes, rejecting any simple separation of economic and cultural "variables." Understanding these cultural processes necessitates analysis of local social context, and of how people construct reality, manipulate norms, and the difference between what people say and what they do. Such data can only be obtained through systematic ethnography. Four anthropologists will spend 15 months each doing ethnography focusing on the culture of reproduction in four different Italian cities, two in the north (Bologna, Padua) and two in the south (Naples, Cagliari). Special attention is paid to the impact of parents on their children's fertility decision-making, and to the impact of peers. Each ethnographer will follow a common guide to participant observation, will conduct research both in a working-class and a middle-class neighborhood and employ a common protocol including a life-history matrix. Interviews are to be conducted at each site with 50 women aged 23-42 and with their mothers. In addition, a series of national-level Italian surveys will be examined through longitudinal and multi-level techniques, following a life-course approach. We also examine women's reproductive life courses in conjunction with their work histories, controlling for both individual- and couple-level characteristics, as well as community- and regional-level characteristics, to shed new light on the relationship between women's work and fertility, and on the cultural and community contexts that affect these relationships.