Decision Regarding Aspiration, Belief, and Social Economic Status in Education and Job Market

该项目计划由三个部分组成。第一部分是了解抱负如何影响小学生的学习努力。其次，我计划将研究扩展到家庭内部的委托代理博弈。然后，我可以讨论性别和社会经济因素将如何影响家庭投资或工作决策。最后，我将尝试找到一个就业市场，将这一理论应用到实地实验中。对于第一个研究，我的目标是了解学生如何形成自我抱负，以及它对学习努力和就业安置的影响。在这项研究中，我结合和调整了过去与抱负、努力和收入相关的模型。此外，我考察了(1)小学生是否使用贝叶斯更新来更新他们的愿望；(2)愿望与真实类型之间的差距是否会导致对努力学习的满意和挫折效应；(3)愿望差异如何影响学业成绩或进一步影响未来的收入。在初步结果中，我发现人们确实遵循贝叶斯更新，但与理论预测略有负面偏差。正如过去的论文所说，愿望之间的差距确实遵循倒U字形。在适当的差距(略小于他们的类型)，它可以达到最大的努力付出和达到最优的结果。本研究服务于可持续发展目标1、4、8和10。抱负是教育发展计划的重要组成部分。许多非政府组织利用家长会或愿望讲座作为教育资源转移的补充，以提高教育质量。然而，很少有研究考察抱负与教育有效性之间的联系。我们的研究检验了这一假设，并为这些组织未来在提高教育成就或就业安置方面的实地工作提供了更好的指导。此外，了解不同的背景可能会产生不同的愿望效应，这也有助于我们研究如何减少教育不平等。通过这个模型，我们可以分析背景或发展计划的影响，从而通过抱负来提高未来的成就。

This project is planned to consist of three parts. The first section is to understand how aspiration would affect pupils' effort in learning. Second, I plan to extend the study to a principal-agent game within a family. Then, I can discuss how gender and social economic factor would affect household investment or working decisions. Lastly, I will try to find a job market to implement the theory into field experiments.For the first study, I aim to understand how students form their self-aspiration and its effect on learning effort and job placement. In this study, I combine and adapt past models related to aspiration, effort, and income. Furthermore, I examine (1) whether pupils use Bayesian updating to update their aspirations, (2) whether the gap between aspiration and their true type would induce satisfaction and frustration effects on putting effort into learning, (3) how the aspiration differences would affect academic outcome or further in future income. In the preliminary result, I find people do follows the Bayesian updating but with a slightly negative bias from the theoretical prediction. The gap between aspiration indeed follows the inverse-U shape as past papers state. Within the suitable gap (slightly less than their type), it can reach the highest effort exertion and reach the optimal outcome.This study serves SDG goals 1, 4, 8, and 10. Aspiration is a crucial component of the educational development program. Many NGOs use parents' meetings or aspiration talks as complements to the educational resources transfer to improve education quality. Yet, rare studies examine how aspiration links to effectiveness in education. Our study examines the hypothesis and gives these organizations a better guide for future fieldwork on improving their educational achievement or job placement. Moreover, understanding different background profiles may lead to distinctive aspiration effects can also help us examine how to reduce educational inequality. By using this model, we can then analyze the influence of the background or development program that can increase future achievement through aspiration.