Persistent droughts and water supply system risk in a changing climate

干旱对英格兰的公共供水系统构成了重大风险，因此水务公司现在计划达到500年一遇的干旱恢复力标准。然而，必须考虑到气候变化。在英国西部，水资源系统以高地水库蓄水为主。通常情况下，水库蓄水量从3月/4月开始下降，并在秋季/冬季重新蓄水。在持续干旱的天气下，流入水库的水量很少，严重干旱的发生取决于长期的大气阻塞系统。计划进行重大基础设施投资，以确保水资源能够抵御未来的极端干旱。关于长期降水异常的模式以及它们如何延伸到夏季之后，存在着知识空白。超越历史数据，了解气候变化下可能发生的更极端的事件，对于加强我们对风险及其缓解的理解至关重要。这个WIRe CDT博士将使用最新的气候模型输出和随机天气发生器来评估供应系统的风险。它将提高对干旱风险的认识，使联合公用事业公司能够通过提供将风险评估纳入水资源规划的方法，保护其客户免受长期干旱的影响。

Droughts present a significant risk to public water supply systems in England and so water companies are now planning to meet 1 in 500-year drought resilience standards. However, it is essential that climate change is taken into account. In the west of the UK, water resource systems are dominated by upland reservoir storage. Typically, reservoir storage draws down from March/April and refills through the autumn/winter. In sustained dry weather there is little inflow to the reservoirs, with severe drought occurrence dependent on prolonged atmospheric blocking systems. Significant infrastructure investment is planned to ensure water resources are resilient to future extreme droughts. There is a knowledge gap around the patterns of long-term precipitation anomalies and how they might extend beyond summer months. Going beyond historical data to understand plausible more extreme events under climate change, is vital to enhance our understanding of risk and its mitigation. This WIRe CDT PhD will use the latest climate model outputs and stochastic weather generators to characterise the risk to supply systems. It will result in an improved understanding of drought risk, allowing United Utilities to protect its customers from the consequences of longer duration droughts by providing methods for incorporating risk assessments into water resources planning.