Addressing coastal erosion: Stochastic modelling of shoreline evolution under a changing climate

根据政府间气候变化报告，海岸侵蚀和洪水是今后100年最突出的两大危害。然而，所涉及的过程的复杂性，非线性和时间尺度的范围，使他们的预测使用传统的确定性框架是不可行的，并受到不确定性。为了应对这一挑战，博士项目将开发一种方法，使用随机（概率而不是确定性）模型对海岸线变化进行长期预测。特别是，该研究将探讨如何结合联合收割机的随机模型的爬高和侵蚀，由于波浪破碎和风暴潮的长期模型的海岸形态和洪水风险。该项目的新奇之处在于它的随机过程，波浪力学和沿海形态在一个单一的模型相结合。该项目直接涉及以下EPSRC研究领域：沿海和航道工程、业务研究、流体动力学和气候复原力。

According to the intergovernmental climate change reports, coastal erosion and flooding represent two of the most prominent hazards for the next 100 years. However, the complexity, nonlinearity and range of time scales of the processes involved makes their prediction using conventional deterministic frameworks infeasible and subject to uncertainty. To address this challenge the PhD project will develop an approach to the long-term prediction of shoreline changes using stochastic (probabilistic rather thandeterministic) models. In particular, the research will investigate how to combine a stochastic model for runup and erosion due to wave breaking and storm surges with a long-term model for coastal morphology and flood risk. The novelty of the project lies in its combination of stochastic processes, wave mechanics and coastal morphology within a single model. The project relates directly to the following EPSRC research areas: coastal and waterway engineering, operational research, fluid dynamics and climate resilience.