Aerosol emissions from future generation aircraft and their impact on climate

全球航空业在过去50年里快速增长，年排放量从1970-2012年的2.2%加速到2013-2018年的5%。虽然暂时受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响，但现有预测预计这种增长趋势将持续下去。航空对气候的影响有很大比例(~60%)是由非二氧化碳效应引起的，特别是尾迹、气溶胶和NOx排放。这些影响中最不确定的是气溶胶排放(主要是烟尘和硫酸盐颗粒)及其在影响云形成方面的作用。尽管我们最近在了解总体航空气候影响方面取得了重大进展，但对气溶胶-云相互作用造成的气候影响仍然没有最好的估计。该项目旨在通过对各种空中交通和航空燃料情景的这一重要影响提供可靠的估计，直接解决这一问题。该项目将开发和使用最先进的模型，以量化当前和未来一代飞机的航空排放对气候的全面影响。虽然被认为是一个重要的气候强迫术语，但气溶胶-云相互作用目前没有包括在航空对气候影响的全球评估中。对这一重要气候影响的估计将作为该项目的一部分。这将确保在设计到2050年实现航空净零碳排放的最佳路径时，充分考虑航空气候影响，这是航空业最近设定的一个雄心勃勃的目标。

Global aviation has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, with annual emission accelerating from growth rates of 2.2% during 1970-2012 to 5% during 2013-2018. While temporarily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, existing forecasts predict a continuation of this growth trend. A significant proportion (~60%) of the aviation effect on climate is caused by non-CO2 effects, in particular contrails, aerosols, and NOx emissions. The most uncertain of these effects is from aerosol emissions (primarily soot and sulphate particles) and their role on influencing cloud formation. Despite significant recent progress in our understanding of the overall aviation climate impact, there are still no best estimates for the climate impact caused by aerosol-cloud interactions. This project aims to directly address this by providing robust estimates of this important effect for a variety of air traffic and aviation fuel scenarios. The project will develop and use state-of-the-art models to quantify the full impact on climate of aviation emissions from current and future generation aircraft. While recognised as an important climate forcing term, aerosol-cloud interactions are currently not included in global assessments of the aviation impact on climate. Estimates for this important climate effect will be developed as part of this project. This will ensure that the full aviation climate impact is accounted for when designing the best pathways for achieving net-zero carbon emission aviation by 2050, an ambitious target recently set by the aviation industry.