Exploring External Influences on Sentence Severity Across England and Wales

近年来，英格兰和威尔士经历了一个判刑严重程度大幅上升的过程。以前的研究强调了这一点，通过检查可能是负责任的因素，如引入量刑指南和政治话语有关增加惩罚。这个项目将调查在现有文献中尚未受到太多关注的更广泛的因素。它将审查各种影响，包括通过法院、治安法官权力和公众舆论处理的案件组合的变化，所有这些都可能对有效和公正的判决产生重大影响。该项目将使用司法部提供的法庭数据，以增加我们对外部影响在整个英格兰和威尔士法院的量刑严重程度中的影响的理解。所采用的方法，包括多变量回归模型和时间序列回归分析，不仅将查明对判刑严重程度的潜在外部影响，而且还将分列其对特定犯罪类型的影响。该项目将直接有助于促进我们对有效量刑政策和做法的理解-这是该项目外部合作伙伴量刑学院的核心目标。此外，该项目的调查结果可以为量刑理事会和下议院司法委员会等机构提供明确的证据，说明外部影响对量刑严重程度的影响。值得注意的是，英国政府的2020年白色文件认为，一个有效的刑事司法系统是一个自由，公正和安全的社会的基石，量刑发挥着关键作用，这个项目正是致力于这一关键方面。

In recent years, England and Wales have undergone a process of substantial inflation in sentence severity. Previous studies have emphasised this by examining the factors that might be responsible, such as the introduction of sentencing guidelines and political discourse relating to increased punitiveness. This project will investigate a broader range of factors that have not yet received much attention in the existing literature. It will examine influences including changes in the mix of cases processed through the courts, magistrate authority and public opinion, all of which potentially have substantial ramifications on effective and fair sentencing. This project will use court data available from the Ministry of Justice to increase our understanding of the impact that external influences play in sentencing severity throughout the English and Welsh courts. The methods implemented, including multivariable regression models and time-series regression analyses, will identify not just potential external influences on sentence severity, but also disaggregate their influence on particular offence types. This project will directly contribute to advancing our comprehension of effective sentencing policies and practices - a core goal of this project's external partner the Sentencing Academy. Moreover, the findings of this project can provide clear evidence on the effects of external influences on sentencing severity for bodies such as the Sentencing Council and the House of Commons Justice Committee. Notably, the UK Government's 2020 White Paper contends that an efficient criminal justice system is the cornerstone of a free, just, and secure society, with sentencing playing a critical role, this project is dedicated to precisely this crucial aspect.