Interactions between landscape level vulnerability and zoonotic outbreak risk at a global scale

超过10.000种不同的病毒有能力感染人类。尽管其中大部分是在野生动物体内悄悄循环的，但气候变化和人类引起的土地利用变化正在打破地理障碍。这为携带这些病毒的野生动物创造了接触其他动物和人类的新机会，以及分享病毒的机会，这些被称为人畜共患病溢出事件。应对全球环境变化和疾病暴发的这一问题需要一种统一的健康方法，将人类健康、动物健康和环境健康联系起来。人畜共患病的驱动因素是复杂和多方面的，理解它们之间的相互作用需要一个整体的方法。这可以通过培养一种协作、多学科、跨学科和跨学科的工作文化来实现，这种文化提供以环境方法为核心的综合解决方案。具体来说，本项目将采用定量和定性相结合的方法。将对文献进行审查，以核对证据和可能的替代数据来源。同样，将进行一项审查，以绘制和确定一系列学科和研究领域的创新方法工具和技术。此外，这项研究将利用尖端统计技术，分析包括气候数据、卫星数据的土地利用模式和生物多样性指标在内的大量数据集。通过复杂的空间建模，我们将能够深入研究这些因素之间的错综复杂的关系，这将是理解是什么驱动人畜共患病溢出的关键，此外，我们还能够识别和预测作为潜在地理发源点的全球热点/地区。通过这一过程，将收集大量证据，以了解是什么推动了人畜共患疾病的蔓延，并确定了全球易受影响的地区。将这些证据转化为循证政策，对于制定预防和打破传播链方面的解决方案至关重要(联合国报告)，以减少新出现或再次出现的人畜共患疾病的风险。为此，将在柏林的世卫组织大流行中心开展一些工作，这一合作以及CDT内的其他工作和与其他合作伙伴的合作将促进研究的卓越和影响。世卫组织大流行中心的工作将是开发用户界面，制定适应气候变化的疫情管理建议，并参与战略规划工作。不仅专业和技术技能不可缺少，而且一般专业能力也是不可或缺的，并将在整个CDT期间得到发展。虽然专业技能(如空间建模、数学和统计)使其能够深入研究学术领域，但这些能力与一般专业技能(如科学交流、协作、领导力和项目管理)的融合是关键。当专门知识与将复杂的研究转化为决策者和普通民众能够理解的政策的能力结合在一起时，就具有了重要意义。所有这些目标都与英国研究和创新中心及其各自的理事会(MRC、BBRSRC和MRC)的愿景、战略和交付计划非常一致，特别是与应对感染主题有关。最后，拥抱跨学科，特别是在单一健康等领域，承认人类、动物和环境健康的相互关联性。倡导创新和综合的解决方案将弥合各学科之间的差距，并制定有效的战略来减轻与人畜共患疾病相关的风险，确保建立一个更具弹性和更健康的全球社会。

Over 10.000 different virus species have the capacity to infect humans. Although the majority of these are silently circulating in wild animals, climate change and human induced land use change are breaking down the geographical barriers. This creates novel opportunities for wildlife carrying those viruses to encounter other animals and humans, and opportunity to share viruses, these are called zoonotic spillover events. Tackling this issue of global environmental changes and disease outbreaks requires a one health approach, linking human health, animal health and environmental health. The drivers of zoonoses are complex and multifaceted, and understanding their interaction requires a holistic approach. This can be realised through fostering a culture of collaboration, multi-, trans-, and inter-disciplinary work that provides integrated solutions that put an environmental approach at its core. This project specifically, will employ a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. A review of the literature will be performed to collate evidence and possible alternate sources of data. Similarly, a review will be conducted to map and identify innovative methodological tools and techniques across a range of disciplines and research areas. Furthermore, this research will make use of cutting-edge statistical techniques, analyse vast datasets encompassing climate data, land use patterns from satellite data and biodiversity metrics. Through sophisticated spatial modelling we will be able to delve deep into the intricate relationships between these factors which will be critical to understand what drives zoonotic spillover, and additionally, identify and predict global hotspots/areas that are potential geographic points of origin. Through this, a body of evidence will be amassed that provides an understanding what drives zoonotic disease spillover and identifies vulnerable regions globally. Translating this evidence into evidence-based policy will be crucial to developing solutions in terms of prevention and breaking the chain of transmission (UN report) to reduce the risks from emerging or re-emerging zoonotic diseases. To this aim, some work will be undertaken at the WHO Pandemic Hub in Berlin this collaboration and others within the CDT and with other partners will foster the research excellence and impact. The work at the WHO Pandemic Hub will be to develop user interfaces and develop climate-resilient outbreak management recommendations and participate in strategic planning efforts. Not only specialized and technical skills but also general professional competencies are indispensable and will be developed throughout the duration of the CDT. While specialized skills (like spatial modelling, mathematics and statistics) empower to delve deep into academic domains, the fusion of these abilities with general professional skills (such as science communication, collaboration, leadership and project management) is pivotal. Expertise gains significance when coupled with the capability to translate complex research into policies that are comprehensible to policymakers and the general population. All these objectives are strongly in line with the vision, strategy and delivery plans of the UK Research and Innovation and respective councils (MRC, BBRSRC and MRC), specifically relating to the tackling infections theme. Finally, embracing interdisciplinarity, especially in fields like one health, acknowledges the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health. Advocating for innovative and integrated solutions will bridge gaps between disciplines and craft effective strategies to mitigate the risks associated with zoonotic diseases, ensuring a more resilient and healthier global community.