Atmospheric measurements and modelling to support the Montreal Protocol and international climate agreements

在2018年至2021年期间发表在《自然》杂志上的一系列四篇论文中[例1,2]，我们的团队利用大气数据提供了严重违反《蒙特利尔议定书》的证据，该议定书是一项得到普遍批准的旨在保护平流层臭氧层的条约；尽管全球在2010年颁布了禁令，但自2012年以来，强效消耗臭氧物质CFC-11的排放量有所增加。随后，媒体进行了密集报道，中国也开始了执法活动，发现新增排放中有很大一部分来自中国。随后，排放量大幅下降，二氧化碳当量相当于整个伦敦的排放量。在此，我们将开发全球和区域大气模拟工具，提供一个“预警系统”，以发现《蒙特利尔议定书》和其他国际气候条约所涵盖的各种温室气体和消耗臭氧层物质的类似异常排放趋势。大气化学研究组（ACRG）是国际先进全球大气气体实验（AGAGE）的重要成员。AGAGE测量了《蒙特利尔议定书》和《京都议定书》涵盖的50多种温室气体和消耗臭氧物质。要从AGAGE数据推断排放，需要大气化学和输送模型。这些推断的排放量报告给英国政府，对国际气候决策至关重要。在这个项目中，您将：a)创建新的计算效率高的开源建模工具，利用AGAGE和其他国际网络的远程监测点的观测数据推断全球温室气体排放，使我们能够了解全球排放是如何变化的；b)使用英国气象局的NAME模型和贝叶斯方法设计一个可操作的区域排放估计框架，以“精确定位”测量站附近的主要来源。c)开发一种基于云的数据、模型输出和代码的高效开放共享系统，从而确保相关各方透明、快速地访问结果[j] .自然科学学报，557(7705),413-417,doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106- 2,2018。[10]李志强，李志强，等。中国生物医学工程学报，2016,36 (5),546- 555,doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019。

In a series of four papers published in Nature between 2018 and 2021 [e.g., 1,2], our team used atmospheric data to present evidence of a major violation of the Montreal Protocol, the universally ratified treaty designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer; emissions of the potent ozone depleting substance, CFC-11, had increased since 2012, despite the global ban in 2010. Intense media coverage followed, and enforcement activities were initiated in China, where a substantial fraction of the new emissions were found to originate. Subsequently, emissions dropped substantially, with a CO2-equivalent magnitude equal to that of the whole of London. Here, we will develop global and regional atmospheric modelling tools to provide an "early warning system" for the detection of similar anomalous trends in the emissions of a wide range of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal Protocol and other international climate treaties.The Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group (ACRG) is a key member of the international Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). AGAGE measures over 50 greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols. To infer emissions from the AGAGE data, models of atmospheric chemistry and transport are required. These inferred emissions are reported to the UK government, and are vital to international decision making on climate. In this project, you will:a) create new computationally efficient open-source modelling tools to infer global greenhouse gas emissions using observations from remote monitoring sites from AGAGE and other international networks, allowing us to understand how global emissions are changingb) devise an operational regional emissions estimation framework using the Met Office NAME model and Bayesian methods to "pinpoint" major sources near measurement stations. c) develop a cloud-based system for the efficient and open sharing of data, model output and code, thus ensuring transparent and rapid access to results by interested parties[1] Montzka, S. A. et al., Nature, 557(7705), 413-417, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2, 2018. [2] Rigby, M. et al., Nature, 569(7757), 546-550, doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019.