Improving the surveillance of novel and emerging infections

及早发现和监测新出现的传染病，并了解造成延误的结构性因素，对于及时作出公共卫生反应和了解情况非常重要。SARS-CoV-2的出现表明，即使很容易检测到疫情，在疫源国内控制病原体和防止国际传播的能力可能会失败。这项工作方案将审议下列研究问题：(1)哪些因素可能会推迟新疾病病例的报告，并可能表明国家报告基础设施不发达；(2)在国际传播之前发现和遏制新的疫情的实际限度是什么；(3)能否利用国际旅行和乘客信息来推断新的或新出现的传染病严重漏报的国家/地区的发病率？

Early identification and surveillance of novel and emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the structural factors that contribute to delays, are important for timely public health responses and situational awareness. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrated that even though an outbreak was readily detected, the ability to contain the pathogen within source countries and prevent international dissemination may fail. This programme of work will consider the following research questions: (1) What factors may delay the reporting of new disease cases and may indicate an underdeveloped national reporting infrastructure; (2) What are the practical limits on detecting and containing novel outbreaks before international dissemination occurs; (3) Can international travel and passenger information be used to infer incidence in countries/regions with significant underreporting of a new or emerging infectious disease?