Towards the next generation probabilistic flood forecasting system for the UK

概率洪水预报可以通过更好地了解不确定性和风险来加强决策，如洪水预警。本计画旨在发展一个高解析度之空间变异机率性洪水预报模式。为了实现这一目标，该项目将把不同类型的模型（即，天气预报，径流和洪水淹没模型），并利用贝叶斯不确定性量化框架。洪水预报模型将通过过去洪水事件的数据进行验证。该项目将有助于提供急需的基础研究，以支持英国各地的政府和企业提高洪水抵御能力。

Probabilistic flood forecasting can enhance decision-making, such as flood early warning, by offering a better understanding of uncertainty and risk. This project aims to develop a spatially variable probabilistic flood forecasting model at high-resolution. To achieve this aim, the project will link different types of models (i.e., weather forecast, rainfall-runoff, and flood inundation models), and utilise a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework. The flood forecasting model will be validated by data from past flood events. The project will help to deliver the much-needed fundamental research to support governments and businesses across the UK to become more flood resilient.