Secular Changes in Alzheimer's Disease Risk

了解发展阿尔茨海默病（AD）的风险是否随时间变化对于准确估计阿尔茨海默病（AD）的发病率至关重要。 该疾病对未来公共卫生的影响，特别是护理AD患者所需的资源。迄今为止的所有预测都假设 患上这种疾病的风险是恒定的同样重要的是要评估任何观察到的变化 随着时间的推移，AD的风险超过了人口统计学和风险因素模式变化的趋势。以前的信息有限， 最直接地解决这一问题的两项研究分别于1972年和1985年结束了观察，主要依赖于回顾性研究。 报告中所述的方法是根据报案人的信息和临床记录进行的，并非专门用于确定发病时间附近的所有病例。 拟议工作的目的是利用最新数据和出色的方法对这一问题进行严格审查。我们提出 评估在一个社区中观察到的特定年龄段认知功能水平的变化和AD事件的风险， 同样的方法14年。建议的工作可以在一个合理的成本完成使用数据从现有的大型birdream 人口研究。芝加哥健康和老龄化项目要求所有65岁或以上的人参加一个地理定义的 从1994年开始，我们一直在观察这些人，并在社区中招募更多的人。 他后来65岁了人群的分层随机样本接受标准化的详细临床诊断评价 的AD。共有9,532人参与了这项研究，1,428人接受了AD诊断检查，287人 可能AD。需要解决的问题包括：是否具有特定年龄、性别和种族的认知功能水平 或者发展成AD的风险，或者近年来AD导致的死亡风险发生了变化？教育、职业、收入的变化 或使用可能影响AD发作的药物解释变化？上述发现对AD发病率有何影响 在美国人口？相关性：拟议的研究将使用现有的最佳数据来确定发展的风险是否 阿尔茨海默氏病是随着时间的推移而变化的，并调查可能导致差异的因素。这一信息至关重要 用于规划未来护理AD患者所需的卫生资源。主要研究者/项目负责人（最后一名、第一名、中间名） 作者：Hebert，Liesi E.这项拟议中的研究将使用最好的可用数据来确定患阿尔茨海默病的风险是否 随着时间的推移而变化，并调查可能导致差异的因素。这些信息对于规划未来的健康至关重要。 为AD患者提供护理所需的资源。

Understanding whether the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) is changing over time is critical for accurately estimating the future public health impact of the disease, especially resources needed to care for people with AD. All projections to date have assumed that the risk of developing the disease is constant over time. It is also important to assess the degree to which any observed changes in risk of AD over time exceed trends attributable to changing demographic and risk factor patterns. Previous information is limited as the two studies that most directly addressed the issue ended observation in 1972 and 1985, respectively, relied heavily on retrospective informant information and clinical records, and were not specifically designed to identify all cases of disease near the time of onset. The purpose of the proposed work is to provide a rigorous examination of the issue using recent data, and excellent methods. We propose to evaluate changes in levels of cognitive function and the risk of incident AD at specific ages in a single community observed with the same methods for 14 years. The proposed work can be accomplished at a reasonable cost using data from an existing large biracial population study. The Chicago Health and Aging Project requested participation of all persons age 65 or older in a geographically defined community beginning in 1994 and has continued observation of these individuals as well as enrolling additional people in the community who subsequently turned 65. Stratified random samples of the population receive standardized detailed clinical evaluation for diagnosis of AD. A total of 9,532 people have participated in the study, 1,428 people have been examined for the diagnosis of AD, and 287 individuals had probable AD. The questions to be addressed include the following: Has the age, gender and race specific level of cognitive function or the risk of developing AD, or the risk of mortality due to AD changed in recent years? Do changes in education, occupation, income or use of agents that may influence onset of AD explain changes? What are the implications of the findings above for rates of AD incidence in the US population? Relevance: The proposed study will use the best available data to determine whether the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease is changing over time and investigate factors that may account for the differences. This information is essential for planning the future health resources needed to care for people with AD. Principal Investigator/Program Director (Last, First, Middle) : Hebert, Liesi E. The proposed study will use the best available data to determine whether the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease is changing over time and investigate factors that may account for the difference. This information is essential for planning the future health resources needed to care for people with AD.