A New Approach for the Analysis of Stage-Sequential Process in Substance Use Beha

描述(由申请人提供)：阶段顺序过程的分析在行为和生物医学应用中发挥着重要作用，特别是在研究物质使用行为的发展过程中。使用阶段顺序过程，研究人员能够探索物质使用行为的顺序模式，并找到干预发病过程的最佳机会。拟议的研究将开发一个创新的统计框架--潜在类别-概况分析(LCPA)，该框架将非常适合于这类研究。LCPA将通过将识别过程分为两个级别来提供一套系统地识别同质个体子组的原则：在第一个级别，LCPA识别在每次对物品具有相似反应的离散类别的个人(潜伏类)；在第二个级别，LCPA检查整个时间点上个人的类别成员资格，以便将总体划分为两个或更多个子组。第二级亚组中的所有个体都被期望随着时间的推移具有类似的物质使用行为的顺序模式(潜在的阶级特征)。这种方法允许我们不再对类的性质及其顺序模式做出进一步的假设。例如，被归入特定阶层的个人在其药物滥用的开始和进展方面可能在维度和形态上都具有相似性。此外，物质使用中的行为模式不需要共同的戒律来确定物质使用的阶段顺序过程。这种类型的信息不能用当前可用的方法来完成。我们将建立LCPA将潜在风险因素与物质使用行为的阶段顺序过程联系起来的能力。这将使我们能够调查药物滥用模式的亚组差异(例如，性别/性别)、开始和进展以及特定主题的差异。拟议研究的一个重要目标是在方法论上更好地理解如何调查物质使用行为的阶段顺序发展，以及如何以负责任的方式应用于真实数据实例。这项工作将把统计学方面的最新进展与药物滥用研究中对新工具的迫切需求结合起来。根据这项研究收集的信息，我们将制定指导方针并进行二次分析，以便在药物滥用研究的背景下提供切实可行的建议。将开发一个开放源码的计算机软件，以使广大受众能够接触到LCPA。这将为研究药物滥用的开始和发展及其与风险因素的关系提供丰富的工具包。公共卫生相关性：阶段顺序过程分析在行为和生物医学应用中发挥着重要作用，特别是在研究物质使用行为的发展过程中。拟议的研究将开发一个创新的统计框架，以调查药物滥用启动和进展的阶段顺序过程。该项目包括向物质使用科学家传播关于如何将拟议的方法应用于他们的研究的信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The analysis of stage-sequential process plays an important role in behavioral and biomedical applications, particularly in the study of developmental processes of substance use behavior. Using a stage-sequential process, researchers are able to explore sequential patterns of substance use behavior and find optimal opportunities for intervening in the onset process. The proposed research will develop an innovative statistical framework, the Latent Class-Profile Analysis (LCPA), which will be ideally suited to this type of research. LCPA will provide a set of principles for systematic identification of homogeneous subgroups of individuals by dividing identification processes into two levels: at the first level, LCPA identifies discrete classes of individuals who have similar responses to the items at each occasion (latent class); at the second level, LCPA examines individuals' class membership over the entire set of time points so as to classify the population into two or more subgroups. All individuals in a second-level subgroup are expected to have the similar sequential pattern of substance use behavior over time (latent class-profile). This approach allows us to make no further assumptions about the nature of the classes and their sequential patterns. For example, individuals classified into a specific class-profile can have both dimensional and configurational similarity in their substance abuse initiation and progression. In addition, no common precepts of behavioral patterns in substance use are required to identify stage-sequential processes of substance use. This type of information cannot be accomplished by the current available methods. We will establish the ability of LCPA to link potential risk factors to stage-sequential process of substance use behavior. This will allow us to investigate subgroup (e.g. gender/sex) differences in patterns of substance abuse initiation and progression along with subject-specific differences. An important goal of the proposed study is a better methodological understanding of how to investigate stage-sequential development in substance use behavior, and how to apply to real data examples in a responsible manner. This work will integrate recent advances in statistics with pressing needs for new tools in substance abuse research. With information gathered from this study, we will develop guidelines and conduct secondary analyses to provide practical recommendations in the context of drug abuse research. An open-source computer software will be developed to make LCPA accessible to a wide audience. This will provide a rich toolkit for investigating the substance abuse initiation and progression and its relationships to risk factors. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The analysis of stage-sequential process plays an important role in behavioral and biomedical applications, particularly in the study of developmental processes of substance use behavior. The proposed research will develop an innovative statistical framework to investigate stage-sequential process in substance abuse initiation and progression. The project includes dissemination of information to substance use scientists about how to apply the proposed methods for their research.