The Joint Risks of Hazadous Air Pollulants Among Childhood Cancer Histotypes

描述(由申请人提供)：儿童癌症的病因一直难以捉摸，流行病学研究导致预防策略很少。最近有关孕妇暴露在有害空气污染物(HAP)中的报告为预防战略提供了可能性。这一潜力特别有希望，因为HAP与多种癌症组织类型有关，其方式类似于香烟烟雾和癌症之间的联系。然而，共同或相关风险的程度以及预防的总体潜力仍然未知。贝叶斯层次模型的最新发展为模拟这一潜力提供了强大而新颖的工具。该应用程序的目标是评估和模拟多种儿童癌症的环境风险。中心假设是，母亲暴露在HAPS中是儿童多种癌症的共同风险。这一假设将通过两个具体的目标进行检验，这两个目标得到了德克萨斯州儿童癌症数据库和德克萨斯州卫生服务部出生记录的初步分析的有力支持。具体目标1)针对特定的儿童癌症组织类型，模拟可归因于县级HAPS释放的风险。这一目标的产品将是县级风险评估，它将被建模为县级HAPS的功能。这一特定目标的结果将有助于针对特定地点和可疑HAPS进行进一步调查。具体目标2)对点源HAPS释放点周围儿童癌症风险的梯度进行建模。这一具体目标将利用贝叶斯分层建模，并将导致对发布地点周围的风险梯度进行估计。这一特定目标的结果将有助于为未来的研究设计点源HAPS排放附近的抽样策略。这种方法是创新的，因为它利用了最近开发的多变量贝叶斯映射和分析技术。这项拟议的研究具有重要意义，因为该结果将估计多种儿童癌症组织类型的共同风险可归因于HAPS的释放。这项研究将确定高危区域和相关的HAPS暴露，这些信息对于阐明HAPS的作用和指导进一步的研究至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The causes of childhood cancer have been elusive and epidemiologic research has resulted in few prevention strategies. Recent reports implicating maternal exposures to hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) offer potential for prevention strategies. This potential is especially promising because HAPs have been linked to multiple cancer histotypes in a manner analogous to the links between cigarette smoke and cancer. However, the extent of joint or correlated risks and the overall potential for prevention remain unknown. Recent developments in Bayesian hierarchal modeling offer powerful and novel tools for modeling this potential. The objective of this application is to estimate and model environmental risks among multiple childhood cancers. The central hypothesis is that maternal exposures to HAPs present common risks for multiple childhood cancers. This hypothesis will be tested by two specific aims, which are strongly supported by preliminary analysis of the Texas Childhood Cancer Database and birth records from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Specific Aim 1) For specific childhood cancer histotypes, model the risks attributable to county-level HAPs releases. The products of this aim will be county-level risk estimates that will be modeled as functions of county-level HAPs. The results of this Specific Aim will help target specific locations and suspect HAPs for further investigation. Specific Aim 2) Model the gradients of childhood cancer risk around point-source HAPs release-sites. This specific aim will utilize Bayesian hierarchal modeling and will result in the estimation of risk-gradients around the release-sites. The results of this Specific Aim will help design sampling strategies near point-source HAPs releases for future studies. The approach is innovative, because it capitalizes on recently developed multivariate Bayesian mapping and analytical techniques. The proposed research is significant because the results will estimate the extent that common risk to multiple childhood cancer histotypes can be attributed to releases of HAPs. This study will identify the areas of high risk and the associated HAPs exposures, information essential to elucidate the role of HAPs and to guide further study.