Modeling disease dynamics on large, detailed, co-evolving networks

描述（由申请人提供）：传染病模型可以为公共卫生政策决策提供信息。这项研究的长期目标是创建基于网络的疾病模型，成为公共卫生政策制定者的有用工具。为此，我们提出了以下方面的研究任务：监测和检测；传染病在多个时空尺度上的动态反应策略;行为;模型的概念发展；模型验证与确认；和传播。这些任务将检验以下假设：(a)相互作用网络的详细结构和疾病对该结构的影响对公共卫生产生重要影响；(b)基于相互作用元素的复杂动态网络的模型可以克服公共卫生决策者接受和常规使用的几个重大障碍。有效模拟和表征大型（1亿个节点）网络的新算法，以及从与政策制定者的互动中获得的见解，将用于实现以下具体目标：(1)提高我们对基于网络的疾病模型的理解；(2)相互比较模型并与现有数据进行比较；(3)将现有模型扩展到新的领域；(4)扩展应用模型的问题范围；(5)改善模型结果的沟通。这些目标中的每一个都解决了在将建模结果应用于公共卫生政策时遇到的一个常见障碍。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Models of infectious disease can inform public health policy decisions. The long-term goal of this research is to create network-based models of disease that become useful tools for public health policy-makers. To this end, we propose research tasks in the following areas: surveillance and detection; dynamics of infectious diseases at several spatio-temporal scales; response strategies; behavior; conceptual development of models; model verification and validation; and dissemination. These tasks will test the hypotheses that: (a) the detailed structure of interaction networks and the effect of disease on that structure have important consequences for public health; and (b) models based on complex, dynamic networks of interacting elements can overcome several significant hurdles to their acceptance and routine use by public health policy-makers. Novel algorithms for efficient simulation and characterization of large (100 million node) networks, along with insight gained from interactions with policy makers, will be used to accomplish the following specific aims: (1) improve our understanding of network-based models of disease; (2) compare models to each other and to available data; (3) extend existing models to new domains; (4) extend the range of questions to which models are applied; (5) improve communications about model outcomes. Each of these aims addresses one of the common hurdles encountered in applying modeling results to public health policy. Public Health Relevance: This research will create network-based models of infectious disease that become useful tools for public health policy-makers. These models will guide the design of targeted interventions that optimize allocation of public health resources to combat the spread of infectious disease.