New Methods of Studying Aging, Health and Longevity: Combining Longitudinal Data

描述(由申请人提供)：该项目的广泛、长期目标是制定一种方法，通过开发工具整合不同类型的纵向数据，并制定技术，将与衰老相关的变化的生物动机信息纳入所开发的模型，从而全面分析与老龄化有关的个人的健康变化。这种方法的关键思想是对使用不同观测计划收集的数据进行联合统计分析。分析将基于全面的数学和计算机模型，描述关节年龄相关的生理状态和健康/幸福/生存状态的变化。为了详细阐述这些模式和方法，将处理以下具体目标。1)阐述能够描述个体生理史及其对疾病和死亡风险的影响的健康、死亡率和老龄化的高级模型。在这些模型中加入了描述特定年龄的生理指数的“正常”值范围的能力。推广这些模型，将它们扩展到研究相依竞争风险的问题，并将它们应用于生理和健康/福祉变化的数据。2)阐述研究抗逆性下降速度的隐藏异质性对疾病和死亡风险形状的影响的方法和各自的数学和计算机模型，这些风险被认为是风险因素的函数。3)将描述个体健康/幸福感状态主要变化的有限状态连续时间成分纳入到详细的模型中。公共卫生相关性：拟议的分析与公共卫生问题直接相关，因为它专门设计用于开发模型，提高参数估计的准确性，以提高对老年人个人健康/福祉/生存状况的个别化和全人群预测的质量，以及评估可能的健康/福祉预防干预措施的效果。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term objective of the project is to elaborate an approach for a comprehensive analysis of health-related changes in aging individuals by developing tools for integration of distinct types of longitudinal data and elaboration of techniques for incorporation of the biologically-motivated information on aging associated changes into the developed models. The key idea of this approach is to perform joint statistical analyses of data collected using different observational plans. The analyses will be based on comprehensive mathematical and computer models describing joint age related changes in physiological state and health/well-being/survival status. To elaborate such models and methods the following specific aims will be addressed. 1) Elaborate advanced models of health, mortality and aging capable of describing individual physiological histories and their effects on risk of disease and death. Incorporate in these models the ability to describe the range of "normal" values of physiological indices specific for a given age. Generalize these models extending them to investigate the problem of dependent competing risks and apply them to data on physiological and health/well-being changes. 2) Elaborate methods and respective mathematical and computer models for investigation of effects of hidden heterogeneity in the rate of decline in stress resistance on the shape of the risks of disease and death considered as functions of risk factors. 3) Incorporate finite-state continuous-time component describing major changes in individual's health/well- being status into the elaborated models. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed analysis is directly relevant to public health issues since it is specifically designed to develop models with increased accuracy of parameter estimates for improving quality of individualized and population-wide predictions of health/well-being/survival status of the elderly individuals as well as for evaluating the effect of possible health/well-being preventive interventions.