Cross-National Patterns and Predictors of Life-cycle Smoking Behavior

描述（由申请人提供）：世界卫生组织（1999年）预测，全球烟草死亡率可能从1998年的每年约400万人上升到2030年的每年约1000万人。这一增长主要来自低收入国家的烟草使用：Murray和洛佩斯（1996年）预测，低收入国家与烟草有关的死亡人数将增加四倍以上。但是，在前社会主义经济体和已建立的市场经济体中，目前吸烟者人数众多，这意味着这些国家的烟草控制工作对公共健康仍然至关重要。例如，尽管美国的吸烟率大幅下降，吸烟仍然是可预防的主要死因，每年导致435，000人死亡（Mokdad等人，2004年）。欧洲减少烟草依赖伙伴关系（2001年）指出：“除非采取更多措施帮助2亿欧洲成年吸烟者戒烟，否则到2040年，欧洲每年将有200万人死亡。“我们的项目将分两个阶段进行，以更好地了解烟草控制政策对生命周期吸烟行为的性质和影响。在第一阶段，我们将生成并使用个人的终生吸烟史来描述和比较10个发展中国家和发达国家的吸烟行为模式，其中包括4个前社会主义经济体。对于每个国家，我们将区分不同出生队列的男性和女性的终生吸烟模式。我们将根据与烟草消费有关的关键事件来确定每个国家的模式。在第二阶段，我们将估计吸烟开始和戒烟的行为模式，使用个人的生活过程中的吸烟史合并在同一时期的政策信息。我们还将分析每个队列的吸烟行为的广泛模式（开始吸烟的年龄，戒烟开始超过开始的年龄）。在本项目的这一部分，我们将使用多变量估计方法来确定政策对每个国家吸烟行为的因果影响。我们还将比较所有十个国家的吸烟行为模式和政策估计效果模式，以确定广泛的相似性和差异。各国之间的比较不仅将为我们目前对吸烟行为和政策对吸烟行为的影响的理解提供信息，还将为未来的研究提供新的假设和方向。公共卫生相关性：在“跨国模式和生命周期吸烟行为的预测因素”项目中，我们将记录和描述10个发达国家和发展中国家的男性和女性吸烟行为模式。我们将详细介绍吸烟行为是如何在每个国家的多代人的生命过程中演变的，并在他们的生活中放置关键的历史事件。我们还将估计开始和停止吸烟的决定如何随每个国家使用的烟草控制政策而变化。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The World Health Organization (1999) predicts that worldwide mortality from tobacco is likely to rise from about four million deaths a year in 1998 to about 10 million deaths a year by 2030. Most of this increase stems from tobacco use in low income countries: Murray and Lopez (1996) predict tobacco-related deaths in low income countries will more than quadruple. But the large number of current smokers in the formerly socialist economies and the established market economies means that tobacco control efforts in these countries remain critical for public health. For example, although smoking rates have substantially fallen in the U.S., smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death, contributing to 435,000 deaths annually (Mokdad et al. 2004). The European Partnership to Reduce Tobacco Dependence (2001) observes that: "Unless more is done to help the 200 million European adult smokers stop, the result will be 2 million European deaths a year by 2040." Our project will be conducted in two phases to better understand the nature and effect of tobacco control policies on life-cycle smoking behavior. In Phase I we will generate and use life-course smoking histories of individuals to describe and compare patterns of smoking behavior in ten developing and developed economies, including four formerly socialist economies. For each country we will differentiate patterns of life-course smoking of men and women of different birth cohorts. We will frame the patterns in each country by key events related to tobacco consumption. In Phase II we will estimate behavioral models of smoking initiation and cessation using individual life-course smoking histories merged with policy information over the same time period. We will also analyze broad patterns of smoking behavior for each cohort (age began to smoke, age when quitting begins to exceed initiation). In this part of the project we will use multi-variate estimation methods to identify causal effects of policies on smoking behavior in each country. We will also compare patterns in smoking behavior and patterns in estimated effects of policies across all ten countries to identify broad similarities and differences. The comparison across countries will not only inform our current understanding of smoking behavior and the effects of policies on smoking behavior, it will also generate new hypotheses and directions for future research to pursue. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: In the project "Cross-National Patterns and Predictors of Life-cycle Smoking Behavior" we will document and describe patterns in smoking behavior of men and women in ten developed and developing countries. We will detail how smoking behavior has evolved across the life-course of multiple generations in each country placing key historical events in their lives. We will also estimate how decisions to start and stop smoking vary with the tobacco control policies each country has used.