Dynamic Models of Racial Residential Segregation

描述(由申请人提供)：这项提案概述了一项研究计划，以更好地了解美国城市种族隔离的原因。种族居住隔离助长了高度贫困社区的形成，并被认为是持久的种族健康差距的一个重要来源(例如，机械师，2007年)。然而，社会科学家不知道是什么力量对维持居住的种族隔离做出了贡献，这些力量各自的重要性是什么，或者这些力量是如何结合在一起的。在这个研究领域，有两个障碍限制了因果知识的积累。首先，我们缺乏一个可信的模型来说明个人人口因素和社区特征如何同时影响个人的流动性决策。其次，过去的大多数研究衡量的是个人或中介(例如，房地产经纪人或贷款人)层面上的潜在解释因素，但并不代表这些因素总体上如何影响邻里种族构成。我们的项目通过一个住宅选择的离散选择统计模型和一个基于代理的邻域形成模拟来解决这些问题。离散选择模型是使用收入动态小组研究中关于住房流动性的数据与十年一次的人口普查数据相匹配来估计的。我们的居住流动性基本模型包括种族和邻里种族构成、收入和邻里住房成本、邻里收入构成、住房保有权(自有或租赁)和家庭构成；建议对该模型的扩展包括家庭财富、附近社区变化对流动性的影响以及住房市场歧视。基于代理的模型使用实际城市地区的人口统计、地理位置和住房存量创建模拟城市，其中家庭流动性受离散选择模型中估计的行为规则控制。总而言之，这个框架可以用来解决有关邻居种族偏好、负担能力限制、住房市场歧视和大都市人口构成如何影响种族隔离的问题。该模型还可以用来探索空间定向住房政策对住宅隔离的影响，例如根据Hope VI立法拆除陷入困境的公共住房。 与公共健康相关：种族居住隔离助长了高度贫困社区的形成，并被认为是持久的种族健康差距的一个重要来源(例如，机械师，2007年)。减少种族群体，特别是黑人和白人之间的健康差距的一个战略是减少种族居住隔离和相应的贫困地理集中。这项拟议的研究旨在更好地了解种族隔离的原因，提出减少邻里种族隔离的解决方案，并开发新的分析和技术工具来模拟科学研究中的动态过程。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal outlines a plan of research to better understand the causes of racial residential segregation in American cities. Racial residential segregation contributes to the formation of high-poverty neighborhoods and has been implicated as an important source of enduring racial health disparities (e.g., Mechanic 2007). Yet social scientists do not know what forces contribute to maintaining residential racial segregation, what the respective importance of these forces are, or how these forces combine. Two obstacles limit accumulation of causal knowledge in this research area. First, we lack a plausible model of how individual demographic factors and neighborhood characteristics simultaneously affect individual mobility decisions. Second, most past research measures potential explanatory factors at the individual or intermediary (e.g., real-estate agents or lenders) level, but do not represent how those factors affect neighborhood racial composition in the aggregate. Our project addresses these problems through a discrete choice statistical model of residential choice and an agent-based simulation of neighborhood formation. The discrete choice models are estimated using the data on residential mobility from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics matched with data from the Decennial Censuses. Our basic model of residential mobility incorporates race and neighborhood racial composition, income and neighborhood housing cost, neighborhood income composition, housing tenure (owning or renting), and household composition; proposed extensions to the model incorporate family wealth, mobility impacts of nearby neighborhood changes, and housing market discrimination. The agent-based model creates simulated cities with the demography, geography, and housing stock of actual urban areas in which household mobility is governed by behavioral rules estimated in the discrete choice model. Taken together, this framework can be used to address questions regarding how preferences for race of neighbors, affordability constraints, housing market discrimination, and metropolitan population composition affect racial segregation. The model can also be used to explore the effects of spatially targeted housing policies on residential segregation, like the demolition of distressed public housing under Hope VI legislation. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Racial residential segregation contributes to the formation of high-poverty neighborhoods and has been implicated as an important source of enduring racial health disparities (e.g., Mechanic 2007). One strategy for reducing health disparities among racial groups, particularly among blacks and whites, would be to reduce racial residential segregation and the corresponding geographic concentration of poverty. The proposed research aims to provide a better understanding of the causes of segregation, suggest solutions for reducing neighborhood racial segregation, and develop new analytical and technical tools for modeling dynamic processes in scientific research.