Space-time Modeling for Linking Climate Change,Pollutant Exposure, Built Environm

描述(由申请人提供)：这是北卡罗来纳州立大学、杜克大学和北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校共同合作的成果。这三个机构的专业知识相辅相成，并带来协同效应。我们将实现以下目标：(1)开发广泛的时空统计模型，研究气候变化条件下空气污染对人类健康的影响。我们将改进现有的方法，引入贝叶斯多变量时空统计模型，同时表征环境应激源、气候变量和健康结果中复杂的空间和时间依赖结构，同时考虑模型和数据中不同的不确定性来源。我们将为气候和污染变量开发新的空间分位数回归模型，以更好地描述极端情况、尾部行为以及天气和污染之间的复杂相关性。(2)发展贝叶斯分级收缩方法，以评估复杂污染物混合物与健康结果之间的空间相关性。我们将改进现有的方法，通过同时考虑不同的污染物类型，如臭氧和颗粒物(PM)或形态PM，表征胎儿发育敏感期(怀孕结果)和暴露滞后(死亡结果)的时空结构，同时考虑模型和数据中不同的不确定性来源。(3)建立与健康结果挂钩的邻里剥夺和环境指数。我们将使用上述统计框架和怀孕、感染和营养(PIN)研究中出生体重和分娩时胎龄的数据，该研究检查与怀孕结局相关的已建成和可感知的物理环境相关的邻里因素，将地理信息系统功能、空气污染、气候和天气的确定性模型以及用于降维的新颖空间统计建模方法结合在一起。(4)我们将结合目标1-3中的统计模型，研究在预测未来气候条件下，空气污染和极端天气对人类健康的影响。需要检查的健康数据包括：2001-2006年美国县级每日死亡率(北卡罗来纳州和纽约州街道地理编码)。美国10个州出生的婴儿样本中的出生体重(小于胎龄儿)和分娩时胎龄(早产)，这些婴儿参与了国家出生缺陷预防研究(NBDPS)，提供了分娩时地理编码的纬度和经度。NBDPS中有个人级别的心血管出生缺陷地理编码数据，以及15,000个病例和对照的个人级别心血管出生缺陷地理编码数据。我们将通过开发免费获取的软件，对我们的方法进行广泛的验证和诊断，以及提出适合程度的衡量标准，使这一新方法得到广泛应用和传播。小灵通SF424(2009年12月更新)第1页续格式页 公共卫生相关性：该项目涉及改善对与气候变化相关的健康影响的科学理解以及环境因素的当地特征和暴露评估的迫切需要，同时量化与这一理解相关的不确定性。我们提供统计工具，在有限的信息和不断变化的气候条件下，促进空气质量和其他环境因素的政策制定和更有效的管理。小灵通SF424(2009年12月更新)第1页续格式页

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a joint collaborative effort between North Carolina State University, Duke University, and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The expertise at the 3 institutions complements each other, and brings synergy. We will achieve the following objectives: (1) The development of broad spatial-temporal statistical models to study the impact under climatic change conditions of air pollution on human health. We will improve upon existing methods, by introducing Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal statistical models that characterize simultaneously complex spatial and temporal dependence structures in the environmental stressors, climatic variables, and health outcomes, while taking into account different sources of uncertainty in models and data. We will develop novel spatial quantile regression models for the climatic and pollution variables for better characterization of extremes, tail behavior, and complex dependences between weather and pollution. (2) The development of Bayesian hierarchical shrinkage methods for assessing spatial associations between complex pollutant mixtures and health outcomes. We will improve upon existing approaches by simultaneously accounting for different pollutant types, such as ozone and particulate matter (PM) or speciated PM, characterizing the spatial temporal structure of the susceptible periods of fetal development (pregnancy outcomes) and the exposure lag (mortality outcome), while taking into account different sources of uncertainty in models and data. (3) We will build neighborhood deprivation and environment indices for linkage to health outcomes. We will use the statistical frameworks above and data on birth weight and gestational age at delivery in the Pregnancy, Infection, and Nutrition (PIN) study, which examines neighborhood factors concerning the built and perceived physical environment in relation to pregnancy outcomes, to bring together GIS capabilities, deterministic models for air pollution, climate and weather, and novel spatial statistical modeling approaches for dimension reduction. (4) We will combine the statistical models in aims 1-3 to study the impact of air pollution and extreme weather on human health under projected future climatic conditions. Health data to be examined include the following: U.S. daily mortality in 2001-2006 at the county level (and geocoded at the street level for the states of NC and NY). Birth weight (small-for-gestational age) and gestational age at delivery (preterm birth) in a sample of infants born in 10 U.S. states who participated as controls in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS), for whom geocoded latitude and longitude at delivery are available. Individual-level cardiovascular birth defects geocoded data are available, as well as individual-level geocoded cardiovascular birth defects data for 15,000 cases and controls in NBDPS. We will make this new methodology broadly applicable and disseminated by developing free-access software and conducting extensive validation and diagnostics of our approaches, as well as presenting measures of goodness-of-fit. PHS SF424 (Updated 12/09) Page 1 Continuation Format Page PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project addresses the critical need to improve the scientific understanding of the health impacts associated to climate change, as well the local characterization of environmental factors and exposure assessment, while quantifying the uncertainty associated with this understanding. We provide the statistical tools to facilitate policy making and more efficient management of air quality and other environmental agents under limited information and changing climatic conditions. PHS SF424 (Updated 12/09) Page 1 Continuation Format Page