Modeling Anthropogenic Effects in the Spread of Infectious Diseases

描述(申请人提供)：全球化增加了许多物种的易感个体和受感染个体接触的可能性，因此增加了人类和动物的疾病风险。对于人类疾病，接触取决于人们做出的将易感人群和受感染人群聚集在一起的选择。对于驯养和野生动物来说，接触取决于人们进行的交易，这些交易使易受感染的动物接触到传染病病原体。新出现的人畜共患传染病的传播，取决于这两件事。虽然流行病学家认识到人类行为在疾病传播中的重要性，但他们并没有对所涉及的决策过程进行建模。将这些决策过程嵌入到地区性流行病学模型的联系功能中，预计将提高它们预测传染病的引入和传播的能力，并为评估基于激励的疾病管理政策提供机会(Fenichel等人，2011年)。这项研究将把“接触”的经济驱动因素纳入新出现的人类和动物传染病系统的动态模型中，并分析有和没有适应性反应的系统动力学。这些模型将针对一系列疾病进行校准，在这些疾病中，人们的贸易和旅行决定可能很重要(最初是H1N1、H5N1、口蹄疫)。其目的是加强分段流行病学模型的能力：(A)预测引入特定类型疾病的可能性和一旦引入疾病后的病程，以及(B)评估对疾病威胁和疾病暴发采取基于激励的政策反应的可能性。多年来，通过三个网络的合作建立了研究团队：RCN-BESTNet；国际生物多样性科学计划DIVERSITAS；以及NIMBioS工作组--SPIDER。它包括数学流行病学家(亚利桑那州立大学的卡斯蒂略-查韦斯和乔威尔)、生态学家(达萨克，生态健康；基尔帕特里克，加州大学；史密斯，布朗；金齐格，亚利桑那州立大学；莱文，普林斯顿)和资源经济学家(亚利桑那州立大学的佩林斯、库米诺夫和费尼切尔；霍兰，密歇根州立大学；斯普林伯恩，UCD和芬诺夫，威斯康星州)。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Globalization has increased the likelihood that susceptible and infected individuals of many species will be brought into contact, so increasing the disease risks for humans and animals alike. For human diseases, contact depends on choices that people make that bring susceptible and infected individuals together. For domesticated and wild animals, contact depends on the transactions people make that bring susceptible animals into contact with infectious agents. The spread of emerging infectious zoonotic diseases, depends on both things. While epidemiologists recognize the importance of human behavior in the spread of diseases they do not model the decision processes involved. Embedding these decision processes in the contact function in compartmental epidemiological models is expected to enhance their capacity to predict the introduction and spread of infectious diseases, and to provide an opportunity to evaluate incentive based disease management policies (Fenichel et al, 2011). The research will incorporate the economic drivers of 'contact' into dynamic models of emerging human and animal infectious disease systems, and analyze the system dynamics with and without adaptive responses. The models will be calibrated for a set of diseases where people's trade and travel decisions are potentially important (initially H1N1, H5N1,FMD). The aim is to strengthen the power of compartmental epidemiological models (a) to predict the likelihood that diseases of particular types will be introduced and the course of diseases once introduced, and (b) to evaluate the potential for incentive-based policy responses to disease threats and disease outbreaks. The research team has been built over a number of years through collaboration in three networks: an RCN - BESTNet; the international biodiversity science program DIVERSITAS; and a NIMBIOS working group - SPIDER. It comprises mathematical epidemiologists (Castillo-Chavez and Chowell at ASU), ecologists (Daszak, EcoHEALTH; Kilpatrick, UCSC; Smith, Brown; Kinzig, ASU; Levin, Princeton) and resource economists (Perrings, Kuminoff and Fenichel at ASU; Horan, MSU; Springborn, UCD and Finnoff, UW).