Population, land use & health dynamics; Biomass fuel use in sub-Saharan Africa

描述(申请人提供)：全球每年有超过30亿人依赖生物质作为他们的百万死亡人数，超过了疟疾和结核病的死亡人数。这一指导研究科学家发展奖的重点是制定一个综合研究计划，解决撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)燃料和技术使用的决定因素及其相关的健康和社会经济结果。虽然家庭层面的燃料使用和烹饪技术的决定因素相对较好，但很少有研究对燃料和技术使用的供需双方决定因素进行全面的建模。该项目测试了核心假设，即中、宏观层面的变量，包括土地利用和土地覆盖的变化，人口动态，以及基础设施和市场发展的可变速度，影响燃料和技术选择，并反过来观察呼吸健康、营养和社会经济结果。具体目标包括：(1)在马拉维开发和测试燃料和技术使用决定因素的多层次空间模型；(2)制定和测试一套全面和适当的措施和实地方法，以了解与燃料和技术使用有关的呼吸和营养结果；以及(3)估计一个将燃料和技术使用的决定因素与健康和社会经济结果相结合的动态多层次空间模型。为了实现目标和检验假设，本研究提出将流行病学、营养学、环境卫生、政治经济学、人口学、福利和发展经济学等领域的理论和方法结合起来，并使用空间流行病学和动态多水平建模等前沿方法。这项研究的结果将对旨在减少暴露在生物质烟雾中的负面健康影响的公共项目产生广泛影响，特别是在整个SSA，特别是急性呼吸道感染、慢性呼吸道疾病、低出生体重和营养不良。该奖项的培训部分将使我能够：(A)获得流行病学和营养方面的培训；(B)审查和实地测试收集暴露、非挥发性生物标记物和人体测量数据的适当措施；(C)建立高级空间、多水平和小组回归模型方面的技能。我将把这些技能与我在分析自然资源管理政策和福利结果方面的现有专业知识结合起来，成为人口、环境和健康交叉领域的领先研究员。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Globally over 3 billion people rely on biomass as their million deaths annually, more than the number of deaths from malaria and tuberculosis. This Mentored Research Scientist Development Award is focused on developing an integrated research program that addresses the determinants of fuel and technology use and their associated health and socioeconomic outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While the household-level determinants of fuel use and cooking technologies are relatively well understood, few studies model a comprehensive set of both supply and demand side determinants of fuel and technology use. The project tests the central hypothesis that meso and macro level variables including land use and land cover change, population dynamics, and variable rates of infrastructure and market development influence fuel and technology options, and in turn observed respiratory health, nutrition, and socioeconomic outcomes. Specific aims include: (1) developing and testing a multi-level spatial model of the determinants of fuel and technology use in Malawi; (2) developing and testing a comprehensive and appropriate set of measures and field methods for understanding respiratory and nutritional outcomes associated with fuel and technology use; and (3) estimating a dynamic multi-level spatial model that integrates the determinants of fuel and technology use with health and socioeconomic outcomes. To achieve the objectives and test hypotheses, the study proposes to combine theory and methods from the fields of epidemiology, nutrition, environmental health, political economy, demography, welfare and development economics, and uses cutting edge methods including spatial epidemiology and dynamic multi-level modeling. The findings from this study will have a wide impact on targeting of public programs aimed at reducing the negative health impacts of exposure to biomass smoke, specifically, acute respiratory infection, chronic respiratory illness, low birth weight, and under nutrition throughout SSA. The training component of this award will enable me to: (a) obtain training in epidemiology and nutrition; (b) review and field test appropriate measures for collecting exposure, non-volatile biomarker, and anthropometric data; and (c) build skills in advanced spatial, multi-level and panel regression modeling. I will combine these skills with my existing expertise in the analysis of natural resource management policies and welfare outcomes to become a leading researcher at the intersection of population, environment, and health.