Predicting and Reducing Future Health Disparities for U.S. Adults with Diabetes

项目摘要 糖尿病及其并发症的差异持续存在，尽管公共卫生越来越重视减少 他们与患有糖尿病的白人相比，黑人患中风、截肢的风险增加了两倍， 终末期肾病（ESRD）;西班牙裔和亚洲人患眼部问题的风险高出20%至50%， 患终末期肾病的风险至少高出80%。许多干预措施已经开发出来，以减少糖尿病的健康 然而，尽管积累了证据，采取干预措施消除差距， 在医疗保健组织和支付者中进展缓慢。制定和通过政策， 消除糖尿病健康差距的一个重要原因是缺乏关于这些疾病的经济和临床影响的长期数据。 干预措施。仿真模型是数学表达的复杂关系之间 预测器（例如，血红蛋白A1 c）和结果（例如，ESRD）在特定人群中。糖尿病模拟 十多年来，模型一直用于描述临床指南的成本效益，临床 干预措施，以及新的药物和设备。然而，它们很少被用来研究不同的影响， 人口之间，即健康差距。如果没有这样的模型，就很难比较 不同的临床和公共卫生干预措施，以减少健康差距，决策者难以 决定在哪里分配资源。这种模式不存在的原因是，目前大多数 糖尿病模拟模型依赖于来自UKPDS和其他来源的数据，这些数据没有大的 西班牙裔和/或亚裔患者群体。发展一个更有用的多民族国家的主要挑战是， 糖尿病模拟模型需要具有跨医疗保健利用的所有领域的综合数据， 包括临床测量的风险因素（例如，血压和实验室结果）和人种/种族数据。 我们将使用来自北方加州凯撒医疗机构的数据，这是一个多民族、社会经济多样化的国家。 糖尿病人群（n~ 192，000）（16%拉丁裔，11%非裔美国人，7%南亚人，4%中国人; 13% 英语困难），以建立患者风险因素之间关系的数学模型， 使用Kaiser数据，然后将国家数据和公布的数据输入模型， 预测减少糖尿病健康差距的长期影响。我们的具体目标是：（1） 为白色人、非裔美国人、拉丁美洲人、南亚人和 中国人群; 2）预测过去危险因素控制的变化对未来糖尿病健康的影响 差异; 3）确定糖尿病健康差异干预措施的成本效益。

PROJECT SUMMARY Disparities in diabetes and its complications have persisted, despite increased public health focus on reducing them. Compared to whites living with diabetes, blacks have a two-fold increased risk of stroke, amputation, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD); Hispanics and Asians have a 20 to 50% higher risk for eye problems, and at least an 80% higher risk of ESRD. Many interventions have been developed to reduce diabetes health disparities; however, despite accumulated evidence, adoption of interventions to eliminate disparities has been slow across healthcare organizations and payers. A critical barrier to developing and adopting policies to eliminate diabetes health disparities is the lack of long-term data on the economic and clinical impact of these interventions. Simulation models are mathematical representations of the complex relationships between predictors (e.g., hemoglobin A1c) and outcomes (e.g., ESRD) among specific populations. Diabetes simulation models have been used for over a decade to describe the cost-effectiveness of clinical guidelines, clinical interventions, and new drugs and devices. However, they have been rarely used to study the disparate impact between populations, i.e. health disparities. Without such a model, it is difficult to compare the relative value of different clinical and public health interventions to reduce health disparities and difficult for policymakers to decide where to allocate resources. The reason that such a model does not exist is that the majority of current diabetes simulation models rely on data from the UKPDS and other sources, which did not have large populations of Hispanic and/or Asian patients. The major challenge to developing a more useful multi-ethnic diabetes simulation model is the need to have comprehensive data across all domains of healthcare utilization, including clinically-measured risk factors (e.g., blood pressure and laboratory results) and race/ethnicity data. We will use data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a multi-ethnic, socioeconomically diverse population with diabetes (n~192,000) (16% Latino, 11% African American, 7% South Asian, 4% Chinese; 13% difficulty with English) to develop a mathematical model of the relationships between patient risk factors and outcomes using Kaiser data, and then to input national data and published data into the model in order to forecast the long-term implications of efforts to reduce diabetes health disparities. Our specific aims are to 1) develop a simulation model of diabetes outcomes for white, African American, Latino, South Asian, and Chinese populations; 2) forecast the impact of past changes in risk factor control on future diabetes health disparities; and 3) determine the cost-effectiveness of diabetes health disparities interventions.