Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts

年龄、时期和队列对47例酒精使用和酒精使用障碍的性别差异的影响 全国性、纵向跟踪队列 项目摘要： 现有证据表明，在整个生命过程中，酒精使用和酒精使用障碍的性别模式 正在趋同；然而，(A)这种趋同是否取决于发展阶段，(B)这种趋同是否 与男性相比，女性的增长更快，或者相反，男性的下降更快 与妇女相比，以及(C)为什么会发生这种情况仍然没有得到充分的理解--代表着一个关键的 知识鸿沟。事实上，干预和预防努力需要关于趋同是否 仅限于某些年龄段，最关键的是，为什么会发生这种情况。此外，饮酒的潜在增加在 女性预示着潜在的公共卫生危机，需要准确预测未来的负担。如果没有这样的 信息、干预和预防工作可能会错位，重点放在错误的年龄段，或者 错误的调解因素。只有在历史上和发展上都有足够变化的数据才能回答 关于缩小与酒精相关的结果的性别差异的基本问题。从 从生命周期的角度来看，本项目将利用通过监测收集的47个纵向队列 未来(MTF)项目，从1976年到2022年，并应用严格的年龄-时期-队列增长曲线建模 说明：18岁至45岁的性别模式发生在什么历史时期，处于什么发展阶段 一直在趋同；性别模式是如何趋同的(即因为女性在增加，男性在增加 减少，或两者兼而有之)，以及性别模式趋同的原因。要确定我们为什么要检查 前所未有的一系列潜在中介因素，包括角色转变的社会学趋势(婚姻， 亲子关系、教育、居住独立和就业)、性别和社会态度，以及 心理因素(饮酒态度和原因、未来的伴侣关系和为人父母的意图、育儿方式 和婚姻满足感)。我们将使用严格的年龄-时期-队列增长模型来实现三个目标： (1)测试在历史时期和在什么发育年龄饮酒、酗酒的性别模式 饮酒和酒精使用障碍症状正在或已经汇聚；(2)预测未来公共卫生 饮酒负担、酗酒和酒精使用障碍症状；(3)社会学分析， 心理和态度因素是历史上性别趋同的潜在中介 发育年龄。将使用为流行病学应用开发的新方法来评估调解 这克服了以前方法中有问题的假设。MTF数据一直是 四十多年来关于物质使用的信息；到目前为止，还没有研究用来检查年龄- 饮酒性别差异的时期队列趋势。性别差异的时间、方式和原因 饮酒量在一生和几代人中都有所不同，这是 文献；我们提议使用MTF数据将是一个开创性的贡献。

Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts Project abstract: Available evidence suggests that, across the lifecourse, gender patterns in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders are converging; however, (a) whether this convergence depends on developmental stage, (b) whether it is due to more rapid increases among women compared with men or, conversely, more rapid decreases among men compared with women, and (c) why it is happening all remain inadequately understood - representing a critical knowledge gap. Indeed, intervention and prevention efforts require information about whether convergence is limited to certain age groups, and most critically, why they occur. Further, potential increases in drinking among women portend a potential public health crisis, requiring accurate forecasting of future burden. Without such information, intervention and prevention efforts can be misplaced, focusing on the wrong age groups, or the wrong mediating factors. Only data with sufficient variation both historically and developmentally can answer foundational questions about diminishing gender differences in alcohol-related outcomes. Drawing from a lifecourse perspective, the present project will leverage 47 longitudinal cohorts collected through the Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, from 1976 through 2022, and apply rigorous age-period-cohort growth curve modeling to illuminate: when in historical time and during what developmental periods from ages 18 to 45 gender patterns have been converging; how gender patterns are converging (i.e. because women are increasing, men are decreasing, or both), and why gender patterns are converging. To determine why we will examine an unprecedented array of potential mediating factors including sociological trends in role transitions (marriage, parenthood, education, residential independence, and employment), gender and societal attitudes, and psychological factors (drinking attitudes and reasons, future intentions for partnership and parenthood, parenting and marriage satisfaction). We will employ rigorous age-period-cohort growth models to accomplish three aims: (1) Test when in historical time and at what developmental age gender patterns in alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms are converging or have converged; (2) Forecast future public health burden of alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms and (3) Analyze sociological, psychological, and attitudinal factors as potential mediators of gender convergences across historical time and developmental age. Mediation will be estimated with novel methods developed for epidemiological applications that overcome problematic assumptions of previous approaches. MTF data have been a key source of information on substance use for more than four decades; studies have not to date been used to examine age- period-cohort trends in gender differences in alcohol consumption. When, how, and why gender differences in alcohol consumption vary across both the lifecourse and generations represents an important gap in the literature; our proposed use of MTF data stands to be a seminal contribution.