ASSESSING THE VALUE OF CIGARETTE SMOKING

吸烟的健康风险是众所周知的，但人们仍在继续 烟。一个促成因素可能是吸烟者可以享受 加强香烟目前的性能，而他们可能会认为 如果发生在遥远的未来，他们的健康就会丧失 全。这样的观点可以归类为冲动或表现得很少 自我控制，因为小的、直接的、确定的奖励(香烟)是 被视为比大得多的、延迟的、 不确定的回报(10年后身体健康)。 建议进行一系列实验，以问：(1)吸烟者是否在 事实折现未来、不确定事件相对于价值的价值 未来、不确定事件相对于当前事件的价值；以及 (2)影响贴现的因素有哪些？研究I将评估是否 适度吸烟者选择立即、确定的金钱，而不是延迟的、不确定的 比不吸烟的人更经常花钱。第二项研究将评估 尼古丁戒断(24小时与不戒烟相比)会增加 香烟，相对于延迟的、不确定的金钱奖励，如所示 由于对即刻、某些香烟的偏好比延迟的更高， 不确定的钱。第三项研究将审查是否提供替代品 与吸烟相比，香烟可以降低吸烟的直接价值 延迟、不确定的货币回报，使用三种不同于 它们对香烟的替代性(非首选品牌香烟， 口香糖和邮票)。研究IV将使用适中和轻量 吸烟者比较吸烟偏好的敏感性，而不是延迟吸烟， 吸烟者对吸烟增加的敏感度带来的不确定回报 卷烟价格(需求弹性)。把这四项研究加在一起 将提高我们对卷烟影响因素的认识 吸烟，以及在更大的背景下，评估 当前的、确定的与未来的、不确定的回报的价值。

The health risks of smoking are well known and yet people continue to smoke. One contributing factor may be that smokers can enjoy the reinforcing properties of cigarettes in the present, whereas they may view loosing their health as occurring in the distant future, if it occurs at all. Such a viewpoint can be classified as impulsive or showing little self-control, because the small, immediate, certain reward (cigarettes) is viewed as being more valuable than the substantially larger, delayed, uncertain reward (being healthy in 10 years). A series of experiments is proposed that asks: (1) whether smokers do in fact discount the value of future, uncertain events relative to the value of future, uncertain events relative to the value of immediate events; and (2) what factors influence this discounting. Study I will assess whether moderate smokers choose immediate, certain money over delayed, uncertain money more frequently than nonsmokers. Study II will assess whether nicotine abstinence (24 hours versus none) increase the value of cigarettes, relative to delayed, uncertain monetary rewards, as indicated by increased preference for immediate, certain cigarettes over delayed, uncertain money. Study III will examine whether providing substitutes for cigarettes can reduce the immediate value of smoking relative to the delayed, uncertain monetary rewards, using three commodities that vary in their substitutability for cigarettes (nonpreferred brand cigarettes, chewing gum and postage stamps). Study IV will use moderate and light smokers to compare the sensitivity of cigarette preference over delayed, uncertain rewards with the sensitivity of smokers to increases in cigarette price (elasticity of demand). Taken together these four studies will improve our understanding of the factors influencing cigarette smoking and, in a larger context, the factors involved in assessing the value of immediate, certain versus future, uncertain rewards.