Pilot Aging and Aviation Safety

描述(申请人提供)：这项申请的广泛、长期目标是为了更好地了解老龄化对飞行员安全表现的影响，并提高航空安全。具体目标是：(1)确定商业航空飞行员坠机的相对风险随年龄的变化；(2)检查航空公司和通勤者/出租车坠毁事件中飞行员失误与年龄的变化；以及(3)在科学和公共社区传播研究结果，并提出相关的政策建议。联邦航空法规要求所有主要航空公司(第121部分)的飞行员在60岁时退休。这项政策(通常被称为“60岁规则”)自1960年确立以来，一直是争议和研究的主题。先前关于老化对驾驶性能影响的研究主要是在受控的实验条件下进行的。 使用飞行模拟器。很少有观察性研究研究飞行员年龄与坠机风险之间的关系。在国家老龄化研究所的资助下，调查人员跟踪调查了1987年至1997年期间出生的3306名通勤/空中出租车(第135部分)飞行员，发现随着飞行员从40多岁到50多岁的年龄增长，坠机风险保持相当稳定。这项纵向研究没有足够的数据来评估60岁以后的撞车风险。在拟议的项目中，调查人员将使用病例对照设计和监视数据来评估第121和135部分飞行员坠毁的相对风险与年龄相关的变化。 案例是涉及重大空难的飞行员(第121部分，n=550)或 美国国家运输安全委员会的航空事故数据系统显示，1983年至2005年间发生的通勤/空中出租车撞车事故(135起，n=2700起)。对照(1100名第121部分飞行员和2700名第135部分飞行员)将与重要混杂变量的案例进行匹配，并从联邦航空管理局的事件数据系统中随机选择。将深入分析550起主要空难和2700起通勤出租车空难中每一起的量化和文本数据，以描绘飞行员失误和其他促成因素的年龄差异。该项目的结果可以为理解飞行员老化与安全性能之间的关系以及重新评估“60岁规则”提供有价值的经验数据。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term objectives of this application are to better understand the effects of aging on pilots' safety performance and to improve aviation safety. The specific aims are: (1) to determine age-related variations in the relative risk of crash involvement for commercial aviation pilots; (2) to examine age-related variations in pilot errors in airline and commuter/air taxi crashes; and (3) to disseminate the study results in scientific and public communities and make relevant policy recommendations. Federal Aviation Regulations mandate retirement at age 60 years for all major airline (Part 121) pilots. This policy (usually known as the "age-60 rule") has been the subject of continuing controversy and research since its establishment in 1960. Previous studies examining the effects of aging on piloting performance were conducted primarily under controlled experimental conditions using flight simulators. Few observational studies have examined the association of pilot age with the risk of crash involvement. With funding from the National Institute on Aging, the investigators followed a birth cohort of 3,306 commuter/air taxi (Part 135) pilots from 1987 to 1997 and found that crash risk remained fairly stable as the pilots aged from their late 40s to late 50s. There were insufficient data from the longitudinal study to assess the crash risk beyond age 60. In the proposed project, the investigators will use the case-control design and surveillance data to assess age-related variations in the relative risk of crash involvement for both Part 121 and Part 135 pilots. Cases are pilots who were involved in major airline crashes (Part 121 cases, n=550) or in commuter/air taxi crashes (Part 135 cases, n=2,700) during 1983 through 2005, identified from the National Transportation Safety Board's aviation crash data system. Controls (1,100 Part 121 pilots and 2,700 Part 135 pilots) will be matched with cases on important confounding variables and selected at random from the Federal Aviation Administration's incident data system. Quantitative and textual data for each of the 550 major airline crashes and 2,700 commuter air taxi crashes will be analyzed in depth to delineate age-related differences in pilot error and other contributing factors. Results of this project can provide valuable empirical data for understanding the relationship between pilot aging and safety performance and for reassessing the "age-60 rule."