Economic Restructuring and Social Mobility in Japan

描述（申请人提供）：自1989年“泡沫”经济破裂以来，日本经历了一场漫长而严重的经济衰退，1990年至2005年期间平均每年真实的增长率仅为1.3%。这15年的经济停滞被认为迫使日本企业放弃了众所周知的“永久雇用”做法，采取裁员措施，并增加了对临时雇用合同的使用。这种变化可能从根本上重塑日本的社会保障制度，从而影响其公民的终身经济状况。本研究项目的总体目标是评估日本转型对个人经济流动性和福祉的影响。日本提供了一个独特的机会来研究国家劳动力市场特征的变化如何影响个人在单一国家环境中的生活机会，其中研究结果不太可能被多国研究中难以衡量的文化特征所混淆。本文将使用“社会分层与社会流动调查”（SSM）的数据，分析就业稳定性和收入分配的变化，探讨产业结构调整是否加剧了日本人口的经济不平等。SSM是第一个从全国代表性的日本男性和女性样本中收集整个经济停滞时期详细工作和生活史信息的机构。由于个人的长期工作前景会影响他们的结婚率、离婚率、生育率以及他们的健康，因此这项研究的结果将对这些主题的未来研究产生重要影响。特别是，该研究将有助于了解日本迅速变化的人口状况，包括日益推迟结婚、生育率下降、离婚率上升和心理抑郁症日益普遍，以及经济和社会变化之间的关系。后工业化社会一般。具体而言，首先，通过系统分析企业内的工作变动率、雇主变动率和离职率的变化，为日本的长期雇用制度是否被废除以及如何被废除提供证据。第二，基于2005年以前的日本成年人的工作和生活历史，使用事件历史模型，调查经济衰退是否增加了个人在一生中的金融不稳定风险。此外，我还将比较日本经济衰退对不同性别、年龄、教育程度和职业群体的影响。因此，本研究将首次展示经济结构调整对日本社会不平等的影响。最后，利用1985年、1995年、2005年三次SSM的当期收入信息，分析日本劳动力市场的变化对男女人力资本的经济回报、人生阶段和工作特性的影响。该项目的总体目标是评估日本经济停滞和结构调整对其人口的社会流动性和长期福祉的影响。由于个人一生的经济前景影响他们的结婚率、离婚率和生育率，以及他们的健康，本研究的结果将有助于了解日本迅速变化的人口状况，包括越来越多的推迟结婚，生育率下降，离婚率上升，心理抑郁症越来越普遍。通过确定形成个人经济不稳定风险的宏观体制过程，该项目还将对一般后工业社会中家庭和儿童福祉的研究产生重要影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Since the burst of its "bubble" economy in 1989, Japan has experienced an astonishingly long and severe economic recession, featuring just 1.3% average real growth per year between 1990 and 2005. This decade and a half of economic stagnation is thought to have compelled Japanese corporations to abandon their well- known "permanent employment" practices, adopt downsizing, and increase their use of contingent employment contracts. Such changes are likely to fundamentally reshape Japan's system of social protection and hence affect its citizens' lifetime economic conditions. The overall goal of this research project is to estimate the consequences of Japan's transformation on individuals' economic mobility and wellbeing. Japan presents a unique opportunity to study how variations in national labor market characteristics affect individuals' life chances in a single-country setting, where the findings are unlikely to be confounded by the cultural traits that are difficult to measure in multi-country studies. I will investigate whether industrial restructuring has increased economic inequality in the Japanese population by analyzing changes in employment stability and income distribution with data from the Social Stratification and Social Mobility Survey (SSM). The SSM was the first to collect detailed work and life history information from a nationally representative sample of Japanese men and women for the entire period of economic stagnation. Because individuals' long-term job prospects affect their rates of marriage, divorce, and childbearing, as well as their health, results of this study will have important implications for future research on these topics. In particular, the study will contribute to understanding Japan's rapidly changing demographic conditions, including the increasing postponement of marriage, declining fertility, the rising divorce rate, and the growing prevalence of psychological depression, as well as the relation between economic and social changes in postindustrial societies in general. More specifically, first, this project will provide evidence for whether and how Japan's permanent employment system has been dismantled by systematically analyzing changes in workers' rates of intrafirm job shifts, employer changes, and employment exits. Second, event history models based on Japanese adults' work and life histories through 2005 will be used to investigate whether economic downturns have increased individuals' risks of financial instability over the life course. I will also compare the consequences of Japan's recession for individuals of different gender, age, educational, and occupational groups. In doing so, this research will be the first to demonstrate the impact of economic restructuring on social inequality in Japan. Finally, I will use information on current income from the SSM conducted in 1985, 1995, and 2005 to identify the effect of Japan's labor market changes on the economic returns to men's and women's human capital, life-course stages, and job characteristics. The overall goal of this project is to estimate the consequences of Japan's economic stagnation and restructuring on the social mobility and long-term well being of its population. Because individuals' lifetime economic prospects affect their rates of marriage, divorce, and childbearing, as well as their health, results of this study will contribute to understanding Japan's rapidly changing demographic conditions, including the increasing postponement of marriage, declining fertility, the rising divorce rate, and the growing prevalence of psychological depression. By identifying the macro-institutional processes that shape individuals' risks of economic instability, this project will also have important implications for research on the well being of families and children in postindustrial societies in general.