Economic Well-being in the Aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目将使用多元方法和独特的纵向家庭调查数据，调查2004年印度洋海啸对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛经济福祉的影响。2004年印度洋海啸是人类近代史上最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，夺走了10个国家20多万人的生命，摧毁了许多受灾家庭的生计支持资源。由于难以预测自然灾害并在灾害发生后收集调查数据，以往关于自然灾害对人类影响的研究在很大程度上依赖于小规模和不具代表性的数据源。本项目利用对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛1万户家庭的纵向调查，这些家庭在海啸发生前和海啸发生后每年接受采访。我将使用这个数据集和一系列多变量分析来检验海啸对经济福祉的多种衡量标准的影响，并描述资产、收入和消费的恢复模式。具体而言，该项目将调查：(1)个人和家庭在海啸造成的经济损失方面的脆弱性；(2)海啸后的经济应对策略；(3)大范围重建工作背景下的经济复苏轨迹。这些分析的结果将为有关家庭对自然灾害的复原力和灾后重建在经济复苏中的作用的重要辩论提供信息。这项研究将利用我以前在人类环境地理学和社会人口学方面的培训和经验，以及我目前使用该数据集调查海啸后人类流离失所的研究。为了使这项研究成为可能，我将在印度尼西亚进行实地考察，接受四位杰出人口科学家的指导，并在杜克大学经济系接受发展经济学和计量经济学方面的重要额外培训。这种培训和研究经验将使我能够独立调查人口、环境和发展方面的一系列广泛问题，并制定一份R01提案，在厄瓜多尔开展一项结合人口-环境方法的大规模纵向数据收集。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will investigate the impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on economic well-being in Sumatra, Indonesia using multivariate methods and data from a unique longitudinal household survey. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was one of the most devastating natural disasters in recent human history, claiming over 200 thousand lives in ten countries and destroying the livelihood-supporting resources of many affected households. Previous studies of the human impacts of natural disasters have largely relied on small scale and non-representative data sources due to the difficulty in anticipating natural disasters and in collecting survey data in their wake. This project draws on a longitudinal survey of 10,000 households in Sumatra, Indonesia who were interviewed prior to the tsunami and each year since. I will use this dataset and a series of multivariate analyses to examine the impacts of the tsunami on multiple measures of economic well-being and to describe the pattern of recovery in assets, income and consumption. Specifically, this project will investigate: (1) the vulnerability of individuals and households to economic losses due to the tsunami; (2) economic coping strategies in the wake of the tsunami; and (3) trajectories of economic recovery in the context of widespread reconstruction efforts. The results of these analyses will inform important debates regarding the resilience of households to natural disasters and the role of post disaster reconstruction in economic recovery. This research will draw on my previous training and experience in human-environment geography and social demography and on my current research using this dataset to investigate post-tsunami human displacement. To make this research possible, I will conduct fieldwork in Indonesia, be mentored by four prominent population scientists, and receive significant additional training in development economics and econometrics in Duke University's Department of Economics. This training and research experience will prepare me to independently investigate a broad array of questions in population, environment and development, and to develop an R01 proposal to initiate a large-scale longitudinal data collection in Ecuador incorporating population-environment approaches. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused widespread devastation of coastal areas in Sumatra, Indonesia and destroyed the livelihood-supporting resources of many households. The proposed research will use a large survey dataset to investigate how the tsunami affected the material well-being of surviving households and individuals in Sumatra and to examine their recoveries over time.