Serocalculator: Estimating Incidence Rates from Serological Data

项目摘要 公共卫生科学家缺乏关于许多传染病负担的可靠数据， 采取有效的控制措施。血清流行病学提供了一种有效的手段， 疾病负担的无偏估计，如血清发病率，新感染率， 发生在人口中。这个项目支持开发一个开源的R软件 软件包，称为serocalculator，以生成血清发病率估计，从横截面 血清学抗体应答数据的人群调查。我们的方案将实施一个 用于估计血清发病率的创新统计方法， 抗体从确诊病例中消失，并克服了许多方法学挑战， 阻碍了其他方法。我们的具体目标是：目标1）建立一个开源的，免费使用的 R软件包，用于从横断面血清调查中估计发病率， 可靠，用户友好，目标2）使我们的产品得到广泛采用和可持续使用， serocalculator R包，通过开源获得，一个非R的图形用户界面， 用户和培训课程。我们的软件将填补理论与实践之间的空白， 为新的用户社区配备一个工具，以有效地估计交叉感染的发生率， 分区血清调查。我们预计该工具将用于生成 一系列传染病，提供疾病控制所需的关键信息 采取措施，最终减轻疾病负担。

PROJECT ABSTRACT Public health scientists lack reliable data on the burden of many infectious diseases, which is a barrier to effective control measures. Seroepidemiology provides an efficient means to generate unbiased estimates of disease burden such as seroincidence, the rate at which new infections occur in a population. This project supports the development of an open-source R software package, called serocalculator, to generate seroincidence estimates from cross-sectional population surveys of serologic antibody response data. Our package will implement an innovative statistical approach for estimating seroincidence that leverages information about antibody waning from confirmed cases and overcomes many methodological challenges that have stymied other approaches. Our specific aims are: Aim 1) Build an open-source, free-to-use R software package for estimating incidence from cross-sectional serosurveys that is efficient, reliable, and user-friendly and Aim 2) Enable widespread adoption and sustainable use of our serocalculator R package through open-source access, a graphical user interface for non-R- users, and a training curriculum. Our software will fill a gap between theory and practice by equipping a new community of users with a tool to efficiently estimate incidence from cross- sectional serosurveys. We expect this tool will be used to generate incidence estimates for a range of infectious diseases, providing critical information needed to inform disease control interventions and ultimately reduce the burden of disease.